Mumbai :Terror hits where it hurts the most

Adding to the original post I think we can expect the following in the days ahead.

1. The stock market crashes to lows never seen in the past 4 years. One may question why did the market hold up on Friday. The answer is simple. It was propped up by the institutions and the government. If the market had crashed 5%, the terrorist would've won. So basically the brokers traded amongst themselves and squared the deals at the end of the day. On Monday and the weeks ahead we will see massive liquidation by the FII's which will wipe out the most die-hard bull of the Sensex.

2. We may also see a rate cut of 200 basis points and loan interest rates can dip to 10%. Builders will use this cut as an opportunity to tout their ridiculously priced assets. As believers in black-swan theory will observe, the events of 26/11 will be the last straw which breaks the camel's back, be it the Sensex or the mega bubble in Mumbai real estate.

3. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that foreign companies outsourcing work to India will be more cautious and circumspect in their dealings. The binge madness of outsourcing everything to gain arbitrage will now to looked more carefully as to whether it affects critical business functions in times of disruptions.

4. India's date with terror will continue. The folks who commit these crimes have no regret, remorse or a living conscience. They are so blinded by hatred that it will be only time before another attack of a similar magnitude is mounted on Mumbai or some other city. To deal with this situation we need the Army to run security operations in major metro areas. The police is too corrupt and incompetent and pictures of pot-bellied policemen hanging around the Taj as mute spectators are a disgrace.

5. The cocky behavior the many South Mumbai-tes will now be a thing of the past. I distinctly remember a recruting pitch made to me by a just returned US educated individual way back in Jan 1993 when I went to meet him at his apt in Malabar Hill. He said "The tile you are standing on is worth 30000 Rs", effectively telling me that he has deep pockets. That day was an eye-opener to me on the sheer arrogance which was a part and parcel of some people who live on prime real estate.

I can go on and on but I'd like readers to comment on the aftermath of the siege on South Mumbai.

>>>

As Mumbaikars assess the extent of the damage to lives and property in the attacks of 26/11, it is the healing of psyche which will be in question. While previous attacks have targeted densely populated areas like railway stations, temples and mosque's these attacks have been focused on the rich and elite in South Mumbai. This affulent area is home to less then a fraction of Mumbai's 13 million population, and now appear to be as vulnerable to the crossfire of terrorism as the average mumbaikar.

Lets hope the government wakes up to this tragedy and shakes up the law and order machinery. If an attack of this magnitude is replicated somewhere else, we will have ourselves to blame. A lone fire engine battling the fire at the Taj hotel speaks volumes of the lack of preparedness to handle emergencies.

I hope all readers and their close ones are safe. Our thoughts are prayers are with the injured and the unfortunate victims of this massive tragedy. MumbaiHelp has more coverage on this issue.

The Sound Of Crashing Real Estate (Goldman Sachs)

Ex_Realtor,

You mentioned that you were recently laid off from a big construction house. What is your experience like for working for these folks ? What are the inside secrets which you could share for the benefit of all readers.

Vik.

Goldman Sachs
India: The Sound Of Crashing Real Estate India's property market is poised for a deep correction. This will bring on sizeable knock down effects, with India GDP expect to slide down to a growth of 5.8 per cent in FY10. We estimate prices may need to fall by up to 30% from current levels, with significant knock on effects on the economy.

In particular, it will slow construction activity, which directly accounts for 7.3% of GDP, but has sector linkages which we estimate to be 14% of GDP.
After India's last housing bust in 1996, real property prices fell some 40% over three years, negatively affecting consumption and investment demand.

Mitigating factors-favorable demographics, low mortgage penetration, ongoing infrastructure demand.
India's property market is poised for a deep correction. Property prices have risen dramatically over the past three years, supply exceeds demand in most geographies, and affordability lags prices. Our India Real Estate Team believes that residential property prices in some geographies may need to fall by up to 30% from current levels for affordability to catch up. As elsewhere globally, we think this will have negative effects on the economy.

The imminent slowdown in construction activity can potentially have a big impact on the economy. By using an input-output matrix, we estimate that although the sector directly accounts for 7.3% of GDP, its backward linkages in terms of the sector's usage of iron, steel, cement etc., and forward linkages to other sectors, impacts an estimated 14% of GDP.
Therefore, a slowdown in the construction sector can potentially have large knock-on effects on the economy.
From the demand side, a property downturn, we think, will have negative effects on consumption and investment. As housing forms the largest component of household wealth, consumer demand will be impacted. The fall in collateral will also hurt firms' balance sheets, increase their funding costs, hurt confidence, and reduce investment demand. However,
the impact on demand will be lower than in developed countries.

Lessons from previous housing busts suggest that they tend to be prolonged episodes with considerable macro consequences. After India's last housing bust in 1996, real property prices fell some 40% over three years, and did not recover to their previous peaks for a decade.

Consumption and investment demand were both negatively affected, and growth slowed from an average of 6.8% in the four years prior to the bust to 5.4% in the four years after it. Typically, housing busts in OECD countries have lasted six years with a 30% decline in prices and substantial negative implications for the economy.

Mitigating factors, such as India's favorable demographics, low mortgage penetration, falling interest rates, and ongoing infrastructure demand, in our view, will keep the property downturn from being protracted. However, we believe a sharp slowdown is imminent. We therefore remain negative on the real estate sector, and its supplier industries such as cement, iron, and steel, and reiterate our below consensus estimate of
5.8% GDP growth in FY10.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations,
tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

Mumbai constructions grinds to a halt

Construction halts in Mumbai, so ‘they wait here endlessly for some work’


IndianExpress.com reports on the human toll of the housing meltdown. While the builders can keep taking up obscene prices of 20,000 rs per sq/ft, the laborers who build these houses struggle for 250 rs a day. An ironic state of affairs. This is extreme greed on part of the construction industry who seem to believe that they are generating mass employment for unskilled workers. K.P Singh and the lobby should be ashamed of asking for bailouts from the Indian government when they treat their laborers so shoddily. Its about time the real face of the construction industry is bought to light.


MUMBAI, NOVEMBER 21 : Every morning, Lalita Rathod joins the mass of labourers outside Khar station, an “open labour market” where people are chosen for work at construction sites. But this last fortnight, the wait outside the station has been one huge disappointment for Lalita and other daily-wagers from the Bharat Nagar slums — nobody needs them.

“In the last one month, finding a job has become really difficult. Some of my neighbours have returned to their villages as they couldn’t earn enough to pay rent here. They hope to get back after a few months when things get better,” says Lalita who brings home Rs 250 a day by lifting earth and gravel at construction sites. She says she can find a job as a domestic help but that will just get her Rs 1,000 a month — not good enough because she has five school-going children.

Rafiq Khan, a construction contractor, points to a row of skilled labourers — masons, painters, plumbers. “This line has reduced by half lately. Many have gone back to their villages and will remain there till we call them for work. First, there was an exodus of construction workers from Bihar after attacks by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Now, there is a lull in the real estate market. They wait here endlessly for some work.”

For a city that has some 45 million square feet under construction, Rathod and Khan’s experiences might come across as stray cases. But even the best plans have gone all wrong, so several developers are focusing on selective projects or on completing one building instead of four. At the Kalpataru Aura project in Ghatkopar, work has been stopped on all buildings except one. The DLF construction site in Lower Parel, which had earlier planned to employ about 1,000 workers, has very few workers at the site.

Fear and Deflation in Vegas

Life comes full circle and the anti-matter version of Fear and Loathing in Vegas is rearing its ugly head. Steel is down 75% per ton, cement is down lows never seen. Stocks like ACC and Tata Steel blue chip Tata companies are getting cheaper by the minute and the center piece of action, DLF and Unitech the darlings of the real estate industry are down 90-95% from all time highs. What does all this data fortell ? To the brokers and the touts of the real estate industry they still are calling for a 8% cut (Sobha in Bangalore ) or another stupid builder who is giving an apt in Mira road free if you buy a super inflated apartment in Santa Cruz. With IICI bank and HDFC bank down 70% banks are in deep trouble. They will be very worried about Non performing assets and will be very reluctant to lend at over priced properties. They also would like their current borroweers to pay thru the teeth to compensate for the NPA's. Looking all around there is doom an gloom. I wonder what the trolls on this blog think.

Builders in fix as bhais want money back

Shailesh sent this link in the comments sections which deserves to the highlighted. In the past the builders were the target of the Bhai's for exotortion. Now the bhai's help the builders to milk the middle class with the help of the banks. The poor middle class owner who has bought a 50L 1 bed apt at 10,000 rs is paying a handsome profit to the builder, the politician,the Bhai and the bank. Ofcourse now the ponzi scheme is up and the guys with guns are asking for their money back. Money back guarantee scheme of Mantri builders from Mumbai, is now played with a different twist. Now people can appreciate the deep influence of the underworld on the pricy world of real estate. We have times reporters who know about dealings but the police are busy chasing drunk drivers on the streets. The builders are the sub-prime of India.
MUMBAI: Several builders are in deep trouble with the underworld which had invested heavily in their projects now demanding their money back.
Dawood Ibrahim, Chhota Rajan and other dons are known to have invested in real estate projects hoping to make a quick buck. "But with the downturn in the market they are not getting the returns they expected and are asking the builders concerned to return their monies immediately,'' sources in the industry told TOI on Wednesday. The builders' problem is that they have already invested these funds in buying land and old buildings for redevelopment and have no liquidity to meet the demands of the gangsters. But the mafiosi is not known to take "no'' for an answer and is turning the heat on the builders. One of the builders in the western suburbs is reported to have returned a whopping Rs 750 crore to a big-time gangster. Another big player in the real estate market is receiving calls from a Malaysia-based don to give back his money and he simply does not known how to do that. "None of these builders have approached the police since their financial partnerships with the gangs would be exposed,'' sources added. "We are already saddled with unsold stocks. Where are we going to get the money to repay the `bhais?' They are not interested in taking over the unsold flats since it is a dead investment for them,'' a builder observed. For the past several years, many of the builders are known to accept investments from the gangs since the latter are able to give big volumes of cold cash and that too at a short notice. Since there was boom in the market there was no problem in giving the `bhais' good returns on their investments, but the scenario is totally different now. Incidentally, it is not only the underworld which has been financing the real estate boom. Several top bureaucrats and senior police officers too are known to have parked their black money with builders. These persons have also become jittery and are pressing for the return of their money. At least with these type of investors
the builders are not facing much problem because they are privy to details of the ill-gotten wealth of the babus and cops. But with the gangsters it is a different ball game altogether.

Land dealings hit by global recession’

Looks like the finance minister and the minister in Pune are looking are different set of numbers. Here Mr Pawar is calling for a deep recession and the FM is saying that India will not be affected. The FM needs to dig his head out of the sand and quit. He has wrecked havoc in the construction industry by fuelling the bubble and now is denying its existence. Today he exorted Autos, airlines and reatly companies to drop rates of their products, and ofcourse the banks too, they have to drop their interest rates ? What does all of this translate too ? A slowdown of profits for some and deepening losses for others like airlines.

The article below mentions about townships being in trouble. In Pune we have Amanora, Lavasa, Blueridge whose investors will see their mirage's last longer then half a decade.

TIMES NEWS NETWORK reports

Pune: The global recession has hit township projects and land dealings in and around the city, affecting it dearly, Pune guardian minister, Ajit Pawar, said on Monday. Addressing a meeting of the NCP workers, Pawar said, “The global recession is witnessing a local impact. Township projects around the city are largely affected due to the economic meltdown. Only few days ago, Pune and Raigad districts were leading in land deal transactions. Today, there are hardly any transactions happening.”
The state has already increased the FSI (ratio of permissible built-up area to plot area) for townships from 0.5 to 1. “But these townships are in deep trouble due to the crisis,” Pawar said.
He added that as per projections by Indian economists and political leaders, the recession will continue for a long time. “It’s time to reorganise resources and plan things,” Pawar said.
Mayor Rajlaxmi Bhosale in her speech admitted that the civic body was also facing financial crisis.
“However, the crisis can be attributed to the mammoth development works carried out by the PMC in one year. The PMC has developed infrastructure worth Rs 1,000 crore in a single year. The civic body has also contributed its share to the JNNURM funds. We have provided citizens with world class facilities on the occasion of the Commonwealth Youth Games and that has put some pressure on the municipal corporation,” Bhosale said.
Bhosale said though there are others taking credits for the successful completion of the Games, it was the civic body that created the infrastructure, with the state and Central government providing the funds and Sharad Pawar playing an important role in the process.” She said in the last one and half years after the NCP came to power, various development works have been implemented.

Funny Reliance email

Found this funny email doing the rounds on the internet. It truly refects the state of the Bombay shock market.

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Builders go with a begging bowl to the PM

Rediff.com has a good article on the sorry state of builder finances
In India real estate gets unreal

By Dr arvind, Section Real Estate
Posted on Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 11:31:03 PM EST
someone please help me here. How is it that the country's top realtors who could not have, in their wildest dreams, hoped for formal audiences with the country's economic decision-makers even a few years ago are walking in and out demanding, among other things, lower interest rates, ostensibly to protect the interests of 250,000 construction workers?

Let me break this argument up piece by piece, or should I say separate the carpet area from the built up area. Let's begin with an example. Assume I bought property in Mumbai (pre-2004) paying around Rs 30 lakh (Rs 3 million). Today, the same property quotes for anything between Rs 90 lakh (Rs 9 million) and Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million).

How did this happen? Well, it began in the glorious days of interest rates, with the figure at an all-time low of around 7 per cent. Today one can definitively say it was this very low interest rate regime - I don't care what the supply side guys say now - that triggered, massaged and abetted the mad spiral that resulted in the 300 per cent hike in property prices in the city of Mumbai.

And obviously if it applies to Mumbai, it must apply in similar or identical proportions to property and land across the country, including for industrial land and special economic zones. The same low interest rate regime triggered a housing bust in the United States and a global financial cataclysm, but that's another story.

It also meant that the well-to-do here were buying second, third homes, and trying to flip them around. At 7 to 8 per cent interest rates and rising incomes, the opportunities were almost magical. Browse any major realtor's website (including DLF) and you will see grand, upscale projects which are great for those who can afford them, but hardly deserve the finance minister's intervention if they have to be sold at half the present asking price.

There is an important reality, pun not intended, to reckon with. It is that the stock market party is taking a long breather. Obviously it would be good for all, including this writer's financial assets, if the party resumed. But it looks unlikely to for a while. And promoters would be wise to accept that the markets are not discriminating against any specific industry or company, at least at this point. A look at DLF's stock price versus the Nifty since January 2008 is illustrative. Both have moved almost in tandem.

As have the stock prices of a host of other companies in diverse sectors. So why then is the fate of the real estate industry more perilous than anyone else's, is the question I would like to pose. Surely not for building more diesel genset-powered malls or lakeside apartments and chalets. As I see it, every business house in the country is struggling to match capacity to demand, which is falling. Tata Motors [Get Quote] has shut plants to manage inventory, so have a host of other auto companies. And they, quite naturally, want auto loans to be made cheaper.

Click on "Full Story" for more...

And for all the prime minister's pleas, every industry I know of is rationalising its workforce. Thanks to Naresh Goyal and Jet Airways [Get Quote], no one will, let me assure you, put 400 youngsters out on the streets overnight. But they will cut back and they have little choice but to do so, particularly in industries where out-of-control factors like sky-high oil prices have wreaked terminal damage.

One newspaper report quotes a prominent developer (apparently trying to convince the UPA government to ease up things for homeowners) saying, "The impact of the depressed market will not only be felt on our share values, but also on jobs and overall economic growth." What he mostly means is that the depressed market has severely hampered his ability to raise funds in the last nine months or so. Too bad but he is not alone.

If I were to go by one report, DLF's K P Singh is asking for interest rates in the range of 8-9 per cent. Which is about 1 per cent higher than when the mess began piling up. Brilliant. And would that assume that real estate prices remain where they are or ideally head up another 300 per cent? The industry also wants easing of bank lending norms. Nothing could be more disastrous at this point, I would hazard. So should the real estate industry (it insists it wants to be called one) be abandoned? Not at all, treat them well by all means, but do not by any stretch create special dispensations. For the simple reason that their expansionist ambitions were linked to capital markets and the absence of the latter does not mean monetary or fiscal measures are called for.

Now what is our Joe the Plumber saying? I have an idea. Which is that it has nothing to do with how much supply there is in the system, at least in real estate. It is to do with prices. And till they come down sharply, there is no hope of demand picking up again.

Think at least a 100 to 200 per cent reduction. Sure we could do with lower interest rates but I am of the opinion that higher interest rates (not 17 per cent!) are not a bad deal for this economy.

I have a thought that I would love to open up for debate which is that the excesses of low interest rate regimes outweigh the pain caused by high interest rate ones. That's another story as well.

For now, it's best to leave the real estate sector alone and focus government time and money on real low-cost, rental housing. Like China is.

2 builders drop prices by 20%

20% down, another 30% to go. Anmol used to be 4100 per sq/ft 3 years ago. Its time for it to return to mean

DNAIndia reports

Low demand, global crisis finally take toll

MUMBAI: Builders did everything to keep the realty prices high — from shrinking flats to laying off employees and offering freebies to prospective buyers. But the slowdown has finally made them wilt. Two major builders in Mumbai — Orbit Corporation and Wadhwa group — have cut their property rates by up to 20% amid a severe credit crunch triggered by the meltdown, low demand and high interest rates.

The Orbit Corporation, a real estate development company specialising in redevelopment schemes, has slashed its rates by up to 20% for its 10 projects under construction across the city. It brought down the rates from Rs70,000 per square foot (psf) to Rs60,000 psf for apartments at Orbit Haven, a project under construction on Napean Sea Road. The company has already reduced the area of the apartments to 2,500-2,700 sq ft instead of the planned 4,500-5,000 sq ft in the wake of the realty slump.

The company has brought down the rates for its projects in central Mumbai - Rs12,000-18,000 psf instead of the earlier band of Rs15,000-22,500 for 600-1,600 sq ft flats at Orbit Grande (Lalbaug) and Orbit Grand (Lower Parel).

“One has to accept that there is a slowdown and accordingly adjust your prices. There’s no harm in creating a demand by lowering the prices,” said Pujit Agarwal, Orbit Corporation managing director.

The Wadhwa group, which paid a whopping Rs831 crore for a plot of less than two acres at the Bandra-Kurla Complex, has also slashed its rates by Rs1,500 psf, bringing it to Rs10,000 psf for flats at Anmol Pride and Prestige, the company’s residential projects in Goregaon (West).

Group promoter Vijay Wadhwa said: “We had to reduce the prices as the demand is low because the rates are too high. When the demand is low, I can afford to reduce the rates.”

The group had also not given bonuses and increment to its staff this year. “The slowdown is definitely affecting and my staff understands the ups and downs of business. I could have dismissed 10 employees but I didn’t,” said Wadhwa.

Saneprice.com

I came across this web-site SanePrice.com which can be used as a good tool to share information about housing/plot prices in various locations of India. It uses the same principles used by Digg.com and other crowd-sourcing websites which attempt to figure out the consensus opinion, based on a large set of users. Once this site gets traction, the data will be a valuable set of unbiased information. I urge all readers to update as much information as they can, about plots/apts and rentals. Kudos to Anand for this endeavor.

CNN -IBN poll

CNN-IBN is conducting a poll on the state of the real estate market in India. Click here to cast your vote. The battle is between the hesitant buyer against to the defiant seller. Its a poker situation where each one is waiting for the other guy to blink. The banks are mute spectators to the shenanigans of the RBI governor and Chidambaram. They would rather lend at current rates and hope that builders drop prices, rather then lower rates and pass on the profit to the builders.

Builders in crisis mode in Mumbai

The Times of India is reporting on the slowdown in the building industry.

New housing projects on hold in city

Mumbai: The city is unlikely to see any new housing project coming up soon as the screws turn on the property market. Last month, Mumbai’s leading developers met and discussed the possibility of not launching new residential projects considering the slowdown, sources said.
“New projects are not viable, sales are slow and buyers are sitting on the fence. Every developer is looking at his own cash flow and many projects have slowed down. Each one is wise enough to take a call on what to do,’’ said Mufatraj Munot of Kalpataru, one of the city’s oldest builders and past president of the Maharashtra chamber of housing industry. He, however, denied that builders had taken a unanimous decision not to start new projects.

But with each passing week, stagnant sales is turning up the heat on the construction industry. “Builders are deferring launching of new projects. With banks and financial institutions turning the screws, the real estate market has dried up. There are no investors and the actual users are waiting for prices to come down,’’ said a property developer, not wishing to be identified.
With their backs to the wall, a majority of builders has also started retrenching employees. Last week, a prominent developer known for his signature buildings decided to virtually halve the 450 employees on his payroll, it is learnt.

Even the once lucrative transfer of development rights (TDR) market has lost sheen. Builders used to purchase slum TDR at Rs 4,000 a sq ft till about six months ago. It is now down to Rs 1,200 a sq ft. Still, there are few takers. Moreover, builders who have bought TDR have been unable to pay sellers. It is estimated that about 100 builders owe close to Rs 200 crore to TDR owners and traders.

In the market, although builders are not officially reducing the rates of properties, they are negotiating with individual flat buyers and offering discounts to bulk purchasers. In Bhandup, a developer recently sold six flats after he reduced the price from Rs 7,500 to Rs 4,200/sq ft. In Goregaon, the builder has offered a similar reduction to six buyers.

BUILDING BLOCK
On Ghatkopar’s LBS Road, work on residential project of a prominent developer has come to a halt n Members of a housing society near Bandra’s Bhabha hospital were recently taken aback when a prominent developer from the eastern suburbs withdrew his offer to redevelop the property n Another society near Khar gymkhana received a similar withdrawal letter from a builder from the western suburbs who is said to be “neck-deep’’ in debts n A Delhi-based developer, who had won the bid for a prime mill plot in 2005, hasn’t progressed beyond the basement level in two years n A south Mumbai property redeveloper has mortgaged a high-end flat in his upcoming building to the lender from whom he has taken a Rs 9 crore loan at 39% interest n A young developer with projects in Goregaon, Virar, Thane and Juhu is reportedly in big trouble, having taken loans from Kutchi, Marwari investors at 36% interest. He is believed to have put all his projects on hold

Email from a disgruntled Purva apt buyer

Lets vote with our wallets and boycott these unscrupulous builders

Dear Friends,

Please forward this mail to as many people as possible.

My name is Rishi Agarwal and I am a 1996 EE graduate from IIT Kanpur. I returned to India in 2005 and purchased a flat in Puravankara Fountainsquare. Please go through the message to see the horror story.

I wanted to write this mail to all of you so that all of you can benefit from my (our) experience with Puravankara Projects Limited. I purchased a flat in their Fountainsquare project in Bangalore and this is the story of all my fellow Purva owners.

The agreement that we signed with Puravankara has the following:

1. The delay from our side is charged at 24% per year.
2. The delay from their side will make them pay at 6%.
3. They don't have to pay the penalty if we delay two payments by more than 2 days.
4. What they call as delay is also decided by them.
5. They reserve the right to cancel the agreement at any time and
they will keep 15% of your money.

Sounds scary right? but every word here is true. I can scan and send the agreement to all of you.

Why would you think I signed the dotted line? Why did any of us sign
this flawed agreement? The thing is that when you go to a premium
builder (for which you pay a premium), you expect to have a smooth
transaction. You don't expect such uneven agreement. At the least,
you'd expect that they'll not exercise it.

Puravankara is exercising it bluntly. There are 200 of us who are
already in court against it but as you know we have no legal stand.
We have signed the dotted line. Their executives have been
nightmarish and are very discourteous.

Please contact Mr. Prem at premc@puravankara.com in case you want to confirm the validity of what I wrote in this mail.

Please come forward and teach the unethical business house a lesson.

Kind Regards
Rishi