David Swensen's interview on Charlie Rose

As Yale’s chief investment officer, he manages more than $20 billion in endowment assets. During his tenure at the school, he has contributed more to Yale’s finances than anyone ever has to any university in the country. His new book is called "Pioneering Portfolio Management," and it is an update of his 2000 book of the same name.
Video link here

Where to invest in 2009 in ITndia

The soothsayers are back with predictions. Not where prices will drop, but where prices will rise.
Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, the sophisticated marketing arm of the building industry are making new predictions. Here is the link for the pdf on LiveMint.com's site. The analysis seems pretty straightforward as it proximity to the IT/ITES industry as the main drivers and I've headlined this post to reflect that.

Mumbai
Mumbai has witnessed some of the highest selling prices in the residential market till the
beginning of this year. Clearly, those prices were not sustainable, since buyers for super
luxury homes are shrinking fast.

One of the focal areas was central Mumbai (specifically Lower Parel and Worli) that
witnessed the highest price escalations. These now faces the challenges of the slowdown.
The current slowdown has curtailed the investor segment in the residential property market.
The driver for what demand exists now are real end-users.
In Mumbai, there is no dearth of those desperate to find homes within an affordable range -
affordable housing is therefore now the silver lining on the dark cloud of today’s slowdown.
Mumbai has three different directions in which growth can still be observed. Appreciation is
not a factor currently, but these are the areas that will sustain their prices – while other areas
in Mumbai will correct.
The extended western suburbs; Vasai-Virar sub-region
Drivers:
1. Economic drivers such as the MP SEZ by DHL, BIO tech SEZ by Mahindra
and IT SEZ
2. Connectivity is going to increase by introduction of additional suburban trains
from next year
Prices are in the range of Rs2,500-3,500/sq.ft
Area adjoining Panvel
Drivers:
1. This region is benefiting significantly from trunk infrastructure enhancements
such as the upcoming new airport, the Trans-Harbor Link, a railway terminus,
mono rail etc.
2. Positive impact from the upcoming Mega SEZs by Reliance and others.
3. The expansion of JNPT.
Many developers have already initiated large township projects in this region. The price range
are Rs. 3000-3800/sq.ft.

Bandra-Khar area
Prime property hunters are still focused on this area.
Drivers:
1. It will witness increased connectivity by the Bandra-Worli sea-link, the
proposed Metro Line 2 and also the upcoming Santacruz-Chembur Link road.
2. This region is always a preferred destination for prime property seekers
because of its elite profile, and because of the high level of available
shopping, healthcare, education and recreation facilities. Developers there
are offering products in redevelopment schemes.
The prices range from Rs18,000–25,000/sq.ft.

DELHI
Currently, there is a definite slowdown in growth in the suburban residential market.
Construction has stopped on new projects, resulting in a stabilization of rates for readypossession
flats. This scenario also reflects in Delhi, where the rates for good properties rates
are now stable.
However, the areas around the 150-meter road that will eventually connect Gurgaon to
Dwarka – specifically, Sectors 103-111 – have significant growth potential.
Drivers:
1. Sufficient developments will come up in this area, and one can expect a year-on-year
appreciation of at least 5-7% even now.
2. The area is currently under-developed – however, when residential projects there
reach completion in 2-3 years, the appreciation will be between 30-35%.
3. A lot of this depends on the ability of developers to raise enough cash to complete
their projects. Those who do not have the requisite finances will miss out on an
extremely lucrative opportunity.
The current rates in this belt range between Rs. 2200-2300/sq.ft. In Dwarka, the rates are
between Rs. 4000-4500/sq.ft and in the further locations of Gurgaon between Rs. 3500-
4000/sq.ft.

CHENNAI
Chennai’s residential real estate scenario is considerably depressed at the current time.
Developers who have projects along the once booming IT corridor are all set to reduce their
rates by as much as 20%.
However, the Mogappair-Porur composite region continues to hold mid-to-long term
investment potential.
Drivers:
1. This overall location is very close to the prime residential catchment of Anand Nagar
and also to Chennai railway station and the bus terminus.
2. The fact that it is not near the IT corridor also increases its potential.
3. The rates there are competitive at Rs. 2800-3000/sq.ft.
The expected appreciation for residential properties here is between 20-30% long term).

BENGALURU
Bengaluru (erstwhile Bangalore) is surely feeling the brunt of the IT slowdown. However,
established suburban areas like Koramangala, Outer Ring Road and Bellari Road continue to
be good investment destinations.
As in the case of Mumbai, appreciation is not a focal point in the current scenario - these are
the areas that will sustain their prices, while other will correct.
Apart from these, Mysore Road –which encompasses the upcoming NICE corridor, has lots
of future promise thanks to good connectivity to Mysore and many commercial developments
being planned there.
Koramangala
Drivers:
1. No scope for fresh developments
2. Close to Electronics City
3. Residential demand is high
Rates are between Rs7,000-8,000/sq.ft.
Outer Ring Road and Bellari Road
Drivers:
1. Close to IT hub
2. Outer Ring Road is close to Whitefield and is a commercial area.
3. New developments are coming up on Bellari Road, which is also close to the
Devenhalli airport.
Rates – Rs3,500 – 5,500/sq.ft. Appreciation potential between 5-8% short term. Long term
10-15%.

PUNE
With Talegaon not picking up in the anticipated manner, Pune’s new growth corridor now
encompasses Kharadi and Nagar Road. This can be safely considered as the most lucrative
real estate investment zone for 2009-2010.
Drivers:
1) Eon IT Park – 4 million square feet of prime IT space in the last stages of completion
2) Other IT SEZs as well as commercial ventures also on the anvil
3) Proximity to revamped airport
4) Improved connectivity, largely via the opening of the VIP Road connecting Viman
Nagar to the airport
5) Imminent arrival of 5-star hotels such as JW Marriott, Grand Hyatt and Leela
6) Reasonably low entry costs:
Rates – Rs2,700-3,500/sq.ft

HYDERABAD
Hyderabad continues to hold its own in the current slowdown scenario, though significant
growth has now been restricted to certain specific areas.
Residential real estate investment growth potential in Hyderabad will center primarily around
Gachibowli and Tellapur.
Drivers:
1) Proximity to the financial district, which is where the highest growth of IT and other
commercial projects is happening
2) Could become another CBD over the next ten years
3) Outer Ring Road (Phase 1 in advanced stage, phase 2 scheduled after six months) in
the vicinity will reduce commuting time of residents to key workplace locations
Rs3,000-3,500/sq.ft.
Appreciation in these areas will be about 5% in 2009 and might increase in further years.

MOHALI
Residential rates at Chandigarh have gone through the roof, and there is little scope for
appreciation for now. Moreover, because Chandigarh is a planned city conceived on certain
density specifications, which give rise to limitations on development.
It is therefore not dynamic in real estate terms, which means it will not change much with time.
Chandigarh could not partake in the IT boom for these reasons. However, adjoining Mohali
presents a completely different picture. The area called Greater Mohali, which encompasses
the fast-developing Landra-Mohali Road area, is a very promising residential nexus.
Pan-India developers such as Unitech, Emaar-MGF, Ansals and DLF have snapped up land
there for development into mega, multi-sector residential hubs. These will be highly organized
cluster projects, and all the right drivers are in place:
Drivers:
1) International airport coming up
2) Indian Business School coming up
3) Multi-terminal bus stand soon to be commissioned
4) 120 acre township with IT SEZ coming up
The investment opportunity here is in land, which currently sells at between Rs12,000-
14,000/square yard. After 3-4 years, the land rates in these areas will surpass those in central
Mohali, which currently stand at Rs30,000-35,000/square yard.

KOCHI
Kochi has the fast growing residential market in Kerala. The NRI investments has caused
sudden spurt in residential demand in Kochi City.
Apartment units have the highest demand owing to affordable prices and availability. In
addition, high ranking of Kochi as IT/ITES destinations which resulted in demand generated
by the infrastructure initiatives like the Smart City Project, Cyber City project, Infopark,
International Transshipment Container Terminal Project, etc.
Waterfronts are the most sought out residential real estate destinations and usually get a
premium. The prime residential areas adjacent to M.G. Road and along Marine Drive still
command a premium with landmark projects asking for Rs7,500/sq.ft
Drivers:
1) Close to CBD
2) Attractive Water fronts
3) Huge demand for waterfront apartments
Peripheral areas of the city such as Kakkanad, Edapally and Kalamassery currently face a
short-term oversupply of mid-range flats that are selling in the Rs. 2,500-3,000/sq.ft range.
Drivers:
1) Close to the existing InfoPark
2) Positive impact from the upcoming Proposed Smart city and Cyber city in Kakkand
3) Good infrastructure has lead to a diverse and robust economy and job creation.
Commercial trade, a traditional sector of the economy, is being complemented by growing
sectors such as IT/ITES (due to large scale IT parks and SEZ), BFSI activity and tourism.
4) Excellent connectivity resulting from a combination of airport, sea port, road and rail,
has positioned the city for long term growth and competitive advantage.
5) A disproportionately large number of NRIs, or non-resident Keralites to be more
specific, are investing from abroad and have increased demand for residential space.
Appreciation in the peripheral areas of the city will be about 5% in 2009. We expect a 5-
10% increase over the long term.
Rates: Rs2,500-3500/sq.ft.

AHMEDABAD
Ahmedabad, which has recently started leveraging its real estate potential for ‘real’ now, has
some real residential hotspots coming up.
For instance, there will be considerable economic activity with the arrival of the Tata Nano
project, which will definitely boost the value of real estate in and around the corridor of
Sanand.
Drivers:
1) Located in an industrial region rich with SEZs
2) NANO plant coming up
3) Infrastructure upgradation in process
4) Good connectivity due to S G Highway and SP Ring Road
5) Good land availability
6) DMIC investment region
7) Low land prices (Rs. 650/sq.ft)
Some of the reputed developers active in this region include Pacifica Sahara, Savvy and
Safal. Residential units are primarily villas, selling at rates between Rs2,600-3,000/sq.ft.
Prahlad Nagar is another good area to consider. It is surrounded by premium areas, has a
high income population and the prices are still relatively low. It is also close to the new
business district on SG Highway and has good connectivity to the core city. Rates range
between Rs. 2300-3000/sq.ft
One should also mention the Sabarmati-Gandhinagar highway, which is close to the airport
and Gandhinagar as well as the upcoming GIFT city and Ecopolis, has good connectivity and
infrastructure and will soon see many institute campuses like NID, IIT and DAIICT coming up.

JAIPUR
Jaipur has witnessed some of the best-planned and balanced real estate developments in
commercial, retail and residential space.
While affected by the current slowdown, Jaipur still manages to sail through on account of its
growing population and sound purchasing power.
While residential projects within central locations of the city have witnessed high absorption,
the city seems to be expanding towards two new prime destinations for residential
development.
Two key destinations with the highest investment potential in residential real estate include
Ajmer Road and Jagatpura (both suburban locations).
Ajmer Road (NH-8)
Drivers
1) Availability of land parcels to support large expansive townships as against low land
availability within city limits
2) Low land prices
3) Proximity to Mahindra World City; Mahindra’s SEZ being developed close to Ajmer
Road having campus developments by Wipro, Infosys, Deutche Bank, among others;
this makes the region a potential business hub of the future
4) Rapid connectivity to neighboring towns of Rajasthan as well as the prime city of
Jaipur with NH-8
5) Presence of numerous townships being developed by established developers like
Vatika, Omaxe, Ansal among others provide multiple options for sound investment
Rates - Rs2,500-3,000/sq.ft.
Jagatpura
Drivers
1) Proximity to South Jaipur, the hub of upcoming institutional, commercial and retail
developments. The location is also close to the new airport coming up, which
provides good connectivity
2) Availability of land parcels to support large expansive townships as against low land
availability within city limits
3) Low land price points and entry costs attracting good investor interest
4) Rapid residential development accruing to large number of townships and group
housing projects and townships in and around the area
5) An upcoming destination as a residential hub, with a large concentration of
government housing projects as well; a new expansion zone for the city population
Rates - Rs 2,000-2,500/sq.ft.

Housing bubble comparisons - US vs India

Rediff.com has an article bankbazaar.com on the reasons why the US housing bubble went bust. At the end of the article there is a paragraph which downplays the impact of the Indian housing bubble and focusses on the Indian tendencies towards home ownership among other things. What the article fails to mention is the meteoric rise in prices over short period of time, the affordability issue in cities like Mumbai, Delhi, the black money aspect of the construction business and finally the steep drop in realty construction company stock prices. This the exact soft marketing which we have discussed and now see in action.

The lending scenario in India - Bankbazaar.com

A subprime crisis of this nature and magnitude is unlikely to occur in India, thanks to some very strict bank policies that are in practice.

As a general rule the borrower needs to pay a down payment that covers 15-20 per cent of the cost of the property. This by itself is a test of the borrower's credit worthiness and enables him to have a stake in the property. Also, the bank safeguards its lending interests by ensuring that the money lent is below the market value of the property making allowance for a nominal dip in property prices.

Another important factor is the initial screening banks conduct to confirm the eligibility of the loan seeker for the requested loan amount. Banks make sure that the EMI of their loan applicants does not exceed 50-55 per cent of their monthly incomes. This ensures that as long as the borrower is able to maintain his current income levels, he will have no trouble in making his monthly payments.

Moreover the Indian sentiment revolves around buying a house and spending a lifetime there. Home buyers looking to live in the house purchased rarely change homes in short time frames while in a place like America embracing change is second nature. A situation like this may be far away for India, as we are a growing economy, where mortgage levels are not comparable to developed economies.

We also have strict regulatory bodies like the Reserve Bank of India [Get Quote], which ensures that loan products that could produce systemic risk never make it to the market. Besides this aspect, a favourable market does not exist in India for similar loan products like the Option ARM. The psyche of the Indian consumer does not easily accept debt instruments and a loan is usually high priority and the focus is usually on closing it as early as possible.

Satyam land grab scandal

How many people feel that Hyderabad real estate is headed for the steepest drop among IT cities ??

Prosecution opens Raju can of worms
G.S. RADHAKRISHNA

Hyderabad, Jan. 22: Government agencies today portrayed a hydra-headed Satyam scandal involving bogus employees, systematic skimming of money, countless land deals as well as a cover-up and laid the blame at former chairman Ramalinga Raju’s door.

The disclosures, made in court and outside, were rebutted by Ramalinga’s lawyer who termed them “concocted”.

Public prosecutor Ajay Kumar opened the floodgates in a metropolitan court, changing the complexion of the revelations that have so far been confined to “leaks” by unnamed sources.

“Investigations reveal that he (Raju) had created false employee accounts for over 10,000 bogus employees and siphoned off almost Rs 20 crore per month in their name,” Ajay Kumar told the court today. The prosecutor also claimed that Raju had “stashed almost Rs 7,000 crore in the accounts of his mother and brothers”.

Later, officers of the Andhra criminal investigation department (CID), which is handling the case, said the erstwhile Satyam promoters had been crediting the money each month for four years to as many as 13,000 non-existent employees.

The officers gave the break-up as 10,000 bogus employees and 3,000 retired ones. “The then Satyam management has given hikes, promotions, bonus and LTA to these invisible employees all these years,” a sleuth said. If true, the amount on this count alone adds up to Rs 960 crore.

In the evening, the CID went on record to say it had found documents suggesting 400 benami companies were used to acquire vast tracts of land.

“The documents reveal a mind-boggling land acquisition spree by the Satyam promoters across the country,” said V.S.K. Kaumudi, the inspector-general heading the CID investigation.

The payments for the land deals were made from domestic and overseas accounts of the promoters, the CID said.

The benami companies have been floated by SRSR Advisory Services, a company through which the promoters used to control Satyam, the CID said.

Ramalinga’s younger brother Suryanarayana, apparently a key figure managing the SRSR cash, has not been seen in public since Tuesday night. The police have impounded the passports and frozen the bank accounts of 18 relatives of Ramalinga.

Late tonight, the CID raided six apartments across Hyderabad allegedly used by the promoters to “dump” papers and documents. The sleuths are examining their authenticity.

Prosecutor Ajay Kumar told the court where Ramalinga was produced this afternoon that the promoters had generated false documents for around 2,000 acres in and around Hyderabad so that Maytas Properties, the family’s realty venture, could raise bank loans. Nearly Rs 3,300 crore in loans were allegedly raised using the land documents.

The prosecutor claimed that fake fixed deposit certificates worth Rs 4,000 crore had been found. Some had been mortgaged to raise loans.

Ramalinga’s lawyer, Bharat Kumar, said the CID had never asked his client anything about the alleged non-existent staff, bogus land papers and fake FD receipts.

Bharat Kumar pointed out that the public prosecutor was making verbal allegations without mentioning them in the petitions filed this morning. Government sources later said the chargesheet would mention the specific points.

Open Yale courses on Finance

Robert Schiller, the bestselling author of "Irrational Exuberance" teaches a finance course at Yale. Its fantastic to see the contents of the course online. Stockmarket investors and speculators need to digest this course before burning money at the altar of greed. Here is the link. Knowledge is power.

Devanahalli realty dreams grounded

This is HUUGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The house of cards in Devanahalli has collapsed. Couple of years ago, one of my friends servants sold their family arid farm land in Devanahalli for 1.5crores. Lucky for them they could escape the poverty at the expense of the speculators. They ended up buying a house in R.T Nagar and were very happy to send kids in to decent schools. Unfortunately the educated IT folks gambled and ended up as suckers. Life comes full circle.

DNAIndia reports

Bangalore: Another dream built around the Bengaluru International Airport (BIA) is crashing. Investors who pumped in lakhs of rupees to buy housing plots in the vicinity of the BIA in Devanahalli hoping to encash the boom, are in for a shock.

Addressing a DCs' meeting in the city on Friday last, chief minister BS Yeddyurappa announced that the state government is reconsidering sanction granted to conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural purposes.

If the Yeddyurappa government indeed reconsiders the conversion sanction, the result could be that all lands in the vicinity of the BIA will remain solely agricultural. Neither can houses be built on these lands nor can they be exploited for any other real estate purposes.

According to official estimates, at least 90% of the Devanahalli lands are agricultural. Besides real estate sharks having invested huge sums of money on these lands, scores of housing societies have carved up small residential plots in the area and sold them to the public.

The government had, in fact, even floated a local area planning authority, the Bengaluru International Airport Planning Authority (BIAPA), to streamline development.

However, it is now being argued in the official circles that the government might face problems in future on various fronts, especially infrastructure facilities and civic amenities, if large-scale conversion of agricultural lands is allowed.

"There are reports from geophysicists that the groundwater level has depleted considerably in the area and borewells have to be dug up to more than 900 feet deep to strike water. The selection of Devanahalli for locating BIA itself was wrong for this reason alone. We have only provided water supply to the BIA and an adjoining industrial estate. The demand for drinking water from a public utility can just not be met if the newly formed layouts and housing colonies of the area are developed," a senior official in the revenue department said, explaining the context of Yeddyurappa's statement.

"The government will not be able provide any more civic amenities like drains and sewerage treatment plants for the new residential enclaves coming up under BIAPA," he said, adding: "We have strict provisions in revenue laws that agricultural lands cannot be passed on to non-agriculturists whose income from other than agriculture sources is Rs two lakh and more."

The official said that reasons to curtail development of Devanahalli lands are manifold.
"There are no proper revenue records maintained at the taluk office on several survey numbers. Sixty per cent of the lands are grants to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. This can only complicate conversion sanctions," he added.

Offtopic items of interest : America on Sale

As everyone is reading the bad news flowing out of New York, London, Tokyo, Mumbai and every financial capital of the world, all is not bad for the consumer with cash at hand. Some of the deals I'm seeing these days is incredible. Most consumer goods are discounted 70% now online with many even upto 80-90%. Here are some links which I'm following. These are items I would never pay even the normal sale price but at 80%, I'll buy them anytime. If people have more links please post and I will compile them. I'm looking forward to a day when we can have a list of properties which are on fire-sale. It looks like that day is not far. The bigger issue which everyone needs to consider is whether their job is secure enough to pay off the house, even if it was bought at fire sale prices. How many readers think their job is secure ? I know mine is not. comments ??

Express Sale

The shoesteal.com site has reduced the discounts to 30% from 80%. I guess the 80% was the gimmick to attract page views

Sobha, Unitech offload assets to pay debts

Cash-strapped realtors look to offload assets

Livemint.com reports

The developer has debt obligations worth Rs2,500 crore coming due by the end of March

Bangalore / New Delhi: India’s second largest developer by market value, Unitech Ltd, is selling parts of its 14,000-acre land bank, leading a trend among realty firms putting up parts of their properties for sale to tide over a financial crunch and repay debt.

About 30 plots of the company in the National Capital Region centred on New Delhi, that are part of Unitech’s mixed-use developments and were dedicated for building hospitals and schools, are now up for sale.
“We are selling some of the plots but not all of them,” a company spokesperson said. “We have already sold two such plots.” He declined to give further detail.
Unitech had earlier said it was looking at “monetization” of some of its completed properties to meet debt commitments. The company is trying to sell land parcels in Noida and Gurgaon, both on the outskirts of New Delhi, to meet its debt obligations, analysts say.
The developer has debt obligations worth Rs2,500 crore coming due by the end of March. Unitech is trying to raise funds to repay this debt through several measures such as selling some hotel, office and retail assets and by diluting equity at the company and at the project-specific levels.
Unitech, which is holding an extraordinary general meeting of its shareholders on Monday to seek approval for an enabling resolution to raise up to Rs5,000 crore through various means, has to repay Rs1,100 crore in the next two weeks and meet further debt obligations of Rs1,500 crore over the next three months, according to a 15 January report by BNP Paribas Securities.
“The management has hinted that it is in the process of raising Rs800 crore to tide over the near-term liquidity crisis,” Sandeep Mathew, an analyst with BNP Paribas, wrote in the report. “Failure to do so could lead to forced sale of underlying assets (primarily land).”
In the heart of Bangalore’s business district, a 1.5 acre plot has been put up for sale by Sobha Developers Ltd, a leading developer in south India.
The land, strategically located close to the city’s main shopping and business district of MG Road, at the junction of Church Street and Museum Road, is a fetching piece of real estate in an area that is one of the most expensive in the country’s technology hub.
The builders, analysts said, have been trying to sell off the plot for the last four months, where it had initially planned a shopping mall and a hotel. But the high asking price of Rs120 crore has kept away buyers. The money will be pumped into Sobha’s under-construction projects that are delayed and to repay expensive loans.

Realty firms are looking at other avenues to manage cash flows as debt has become more expensive, analysts at Credit Suisse India Research said in a 13 January note. The report states that Sobha, for example, borrowed funds at 24-30% for short-term periods in October-November and seems to have defaulted on some repayments during this period.
Unitech borrowed at 19% in the same period. “These borrowings are due for payment in January which could become a problem for both Sobha Developers and Unitech as volumes in the property sector are yet to pick up. With mutual funds having stopped lending to this sector and private banks reluctant to lend, Sobha is selling off its ‘excess’ landbank,” the report states.
Unitech and Sobha Developers are only two of many such cases of forced land sales in the past few months that have witnessed aborted land deals, low demand and few sales, pushing developers to defer launches, stall projects and scurry for cash to beat the financial slowdown.
Sobha Developers managing director J.C. Sharma declined to comment, citing a so-called silent period firms need to observe ahead of quarterly results announcements.

“The Church Street land was bought on a 60-year lease period and the developer is planning to re-lease it away. But the sale price is too high,” said a Bangalore-based real estate consultant close to the negotiations. The consultant didn’t want to be identified.

“These are land parcels that would have been bought in the last two-three years at steep prices and where construction hasn’t yet taken off. There are some buyers still—mostly high-net worth individuals—who can buy, but are hard bargainers. With demand being low, it is a buyer’s market now, putting developers in a tough situation,” he said.
Tables have turned for developers, who till the beginning of 2008 would scout for land and pay steep prices. Not any more. “Today, I am flooded with proposals from builders wanting to sell some land assets. But where are the buyers?” asked Praveen Kumar, chief executive officer of One Third Earth, a property and land advisory in Bangalore.
“Many developers are selling the licensed land or developed/under construction projects to get working capital,” said Manish Aggarwal, director, land and industrial agency, at consultancy Cushman and Wakefield India.

Developers are selling assets that will fetch the maximum price such as hotels, office or land licensed for residential group housing.

Land prices in the periphery of cities across India have on average fallen by 25-40% over the last few months, said Aggarwal. “Should the landlords or developers decide to price their products rationally, it is expected that there may be an interest for joint development, joint venture transactions for sellable projects starting from July-October quarter this year,” he said.

Builders under pressure as buyers press for refund

Economic Times reports

Real estate boom are now under pressure from buyers and investors who look to exit these projects.

Already in a spot due to unavailability of bank loans and a fall in sales, the developers are less inclined to oblige the buyers who are coming together to mount pressure for refunds in projects that are yet to take off.

Several buyers and investors, angered by the developers’ inability to start work on projects, have stopped payment of installments on their purchases, adding to the companies’ cash problems.

Investors in DLF’s commercial projects in Delhi and Kolkata have come together with the help of brokers to put pressure on DLF to start construction or refund initial deposits. “DLF is way behind schedule in their projects. It should either start work on the project immediately and deliver in time or return our investment with 15% interest,” says Amit Jain (name changed), a senior executive with an MNC who invested Rs 1 crore each in DLF’s projects in Okhla in Delhi and Kolkata.

Mr Jain says since DLF follows a time-linked payment plan, it has been demanding payments from buyers even without starting construction.

The broker, who facilitated Mr Jain’s purchase, says DLF has not even paid the government to convert the industrial plots at Shivaji Marg and Okhla in Delhi into commercial plots. However, a DLF spokesman denied this saying, “We go by the agreement with the buyers signed at the time of booking. The allegations over the status of our projects are not true. We will deliver as per schedule.”

Several projects of Omaxe, Unitech and Parsvnath are also facing similar problems. Akash Verma, a Noida-based garment exporter, had booked an apartment each in projects of Omaxe and Unitech in Noida. He booked an apartment at the ‘soft launch’ of Omaxe’s Noida project in May 2007. Omaxe had promised to launch the project formally a few months later at a higher rate. The formal launch never happened and investors like Mr Verma are stuck. Omaxe has turned down requests for a refund. An Omaxe spokesman, however, said the company has ‘considered and taken care’ of all such requests.

Mr Verma has also been unsuccessfully seeking a refund of his investment in Unitech’s Grande project. “I am paying Rs 4.5 lakh as EMI. Unitech executives say the project will be delivered on schedule, but there is no worker at the site,” he says. A Unitech spokesman said, “We generally discourage cancellations. But if the buyers insist, we refund the money after deducting 10-15% of the total value of the apartment.”

Most realty firms do not encourage refund requests. Till the end of 2007, investors could easily sell their property in open market as the prices were going up. But with buyers disappearing from the market, investors are forced to approach developers for refunds.

Some property buyers are seeking refunds due to their weakened financial positions, while several others do so as they are not sure of the developers’ ability to complete the project. There are a few others who seek refunds as they feel that they can strike a better deal now with prices undergoing a major correction.

MLAs are eyeing 300 plush Mhada flats

Why blame only Raju and Maytas for the land grab ? Here is an example of a legal land scam, where members of all parties will collude to gift each other this precious commodity. Corruption and greed of Indian politicians is at its peak. It is not even two months for the Mumbai attacks where hundreds of Mumbaikars died for no cause of theirs and brave policemen and commandos battled terrorists with obsolete weapons. Instead of compensating the family members of the slain citizens with a place to live these uber corrupt politicians want to rape and pillage any asset which comes their way.

These guys are no better then Ghazni or Genghis Khan and deserve to be taught a stern lesson. I appeal to everyone to forward this message to as many people, blogs, newspapers and TV channels and stop these looters at their doorstep

DNA reports.
Mumbai: In a move likely to anger hundreds of prospective flat buyers wanting affordable housing, the state government is considering a proposal to allot 300 newly constructed flats in a posh area at Lokhandwala complex in Andheri (West) to housing societies of past and current legislators.

Keeping this proposal in mind, the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (Mhada) kept aside 300 flats and did not bracket these with the 686 flats released for sale this week.

Mhada has constructed 1,088 flats of two and three BHK admeasuring over 800 sq ft carpet area in the sole high income group residential complex at Lokhandwala costing Rs44 lakh and Rs57 lakh respectively -- a steal as the Mhada prices are about one-third the prevailing rate quoted by private developers in the area at Rs12,000 a sq ft.
Sitaram Kunthe, state housing secretary, refused to comment.

However, HK Jawale, chief officer of Mhada's Mumbai board claimed that construction is still on at the HIG colony.

The legislators' demand is reportedly being spearheaded by two cabinet ministers. The ministers claimed that the government had earlier allotted land in survey number 161 at Versova to housing societies of legislators. But since the land fell under coastal regulation zone, buildings could not be constructed.

In lieu of the flats at Lokhandwala, the government has initiated the process to change the reservation of land near Bhakti Park at Wadala from no development zone to a residential use, said an official.

Old wine in new Nano bottle

I guess am getting old and cynical. Last year Sabeer Bhatia was announcing a Nano city in Haryana. This year in Gujarat. There is another one planned by Vinod Dham near Hyderbad. There is a smart city planned in Kochi. How many nano cities do we need ? All these nano cities are fronts for real estate plays by policitians and land owners. If there is something to emulate it is the Mahendra World City in Chennai. It took 6+ years to get it all setup and humming. All these one trick ponies are trying hard to sell the sabarmati river front as lifestyle living to the NRI Gujju community along with the community in Mumbai. To Modi's credit he has done a good job, however he is 10 years too late in trying to move IT to Ahmedabad. Maybe he can try Cleantech and other upcoming industries. Maybe it becomes the Green Valley, though I doubt how he will curtail the pollution and population and prevent Ahmedabad from becoming another Mumbai or Bengaluru. Ironically in Gujarathi 'Nanoo' means small or tiny. All one can hope is the bubble and Rokda (Cash) become Nanoo

Gujarat may be next Silicon Valley

AHMEDABAD: Hotmail Co-founder Sabeer Bhatia said he looks toward cultural innovation in Gujarat and has plans to develop the state as the next Silicon Valley.

"We have got Letter of Intent (LoI) from Carneige Mellon University for setting up a Nano city that will have software development facility for niche sectors such as nano technology, bio-sciences and material sciences," Bhatia said, during the inauguration of Vibrant Gujarat Global Investors Summit which began on Monday.

"With world class infrastructure here and support of the Gujarat government, we can make the state as next Silicon Valley of India by setting up a Nano city here," Bhatia said.

Sharing his experiences on emergence of silicon valley decades ago, Bhatia said the innovation at that time had led to phenomenal creation of value, and the model could be replicated here.

"Five decades ago Hewlett Packard created a small hub outside Standford that led to the birth of Silicon Valley, and in the last 10 years I have seen 1 trillion dollar of value being created because of cultural innovation," he added.

"India has huge potential for it, with a population of 1.2 billion people we create around half-a-million engineers annually, but somehow they are not able to make to make it to top echelons in key innovative hubs, therefore we need a nano city," Bhatia said.

The innovation can come through education and the Nano city will play a key role in software development for niche segments.

Rajus' land bank could be much bigger

Farfetched but true. The greed for land is has sunk a solid cash cow business built on cheap labor, dollar arbitrage and government subsidies. Along with Raju, there will be hundreds and thousands of mini Raju's who will be crushed under the weight of this collapse. In one stroke Ramalinga Raju has setback the development of Hyderabad and AP by atleast half a decade. There is no need for Telangana for now as the crown itself has crumbled.

If 6800 acres is put on the market to liquidate what will be net asset value of this illiquid asset. I think the figure is much more then 6800 acres. Satyam has land in Nagpur close to Mihan and those bozos there propped up the prices by quoting Raheja, Satyam and Infosys.In all my dreams I could never think that the end game for the real estate bubble would be the largest corporate fraud in Indian history.

I always thought the US slowdown will affect jobs, liquidity concerns etc. just like it happened in the US. Raju has created a script which will beat the slumdog millionaire several times over. Maybe he should write his memoirs and make a film on it. I'm sure he will regain his riches if that happens. A Satyameve Raju should be a good title.

It is mind boggling thinking about the hobsons choices which are presented to the Satyam employees.All the moronic newschannels and papers have yet to digest the scope of this scandal and the effect it has on employees whether in India or abroad. There is a satyam blog which is trying to bravely counter all the negative news. Unfortunately the kids don't realize that business leaders of GE/Nestle and others are cut-throat competitors. If they don't think twice in axing their own employees what chance do they have to keep contractors when the company which employs is close to bankruptcy, and will soon have few thousand lawyers crawling all over them. A simple question to ask is "Knowing what you know about Satyam today would you do business with them ?". If you answer yes for whatever reason, you are destined to be a sucker for life.

The Indian political establishment is also making some weak attempts so appear that they are working towards fixing the problem. As with politics they are looking for the problem to vanish and let some other issue take over the media. Unfortunately in this case the US shareholders will get their pound of flesh. Corrupt Indian politicians let Union carbide get away by sacrificing the lives of thousands of Indians. In a country where lives are much valued and law followed, the US lawyers will make sure the misdeeds are punished and the company assets are distributed to their shareholders. If the Indian govt. cannot assure the FII's, safety of their Investments, expect the Sensex to go back to 2003 levels. No more free lunches for anyone. The destruction of money here is of gigantic proportions.

If someone doubt's my analysis, just google for Filipino BPO companies which are touting itself as an attractive outsourcing destination for BPOs due to their ethical business practices. If the government fails to act swiftly, book offenders and liquidate Satyam quickly, one can be rest assured that dark days are ahead.


Let the scavenging begin.

DNA reports
Hyderabad: B Ramalinga Raju has claimed that Maytas Properties had a land bank of 6,800 acres, sources said it could be more than that, considering the properties the family had acquired in other countries.

The uncertainty about the actual amount of land held comes from the fact that most of the property was either handled through a general power of attorney (GPA) or held in somebody else's name.

While Teja Raju was completely in charge of Maytas Infra, a listed entity, Rama Raju, Jr, was handling Maytas Properties, a family-owned, closely-held entity. It is in the family-owned business that the Rajus had built the land bank.

Sources said that the family was acquiring land along with the immediate relative of a top politician in the statehoping that the politician would get a project to the area, or at least a good buyer for the property. "There are many such properties lying with the family which do not have any immediate market unless something major happens at the location," a source said.

However, the real estate market crashed in the last eight months, locking up the assets of the Rajus. The market is unlikely to see any upswing in the near future. "Even if you take the land bank of 6,800 acres, it means at least Rs 4,000-5,000 crore is locked up. Though Ramalinga Raju is a stakeholder in both Maytas Infra and Maytas Properties, it is his sons who are handling the affairs of both the companies," the source explained.

Livemint reports

UK investment bank Noble sees more Satyams in the pipeline

Noble Group was “disappointed but not surprised” by the Satyam development

Mumbai: A day after the Satyam Computer Services Ltd scandal broke, UK-based independent investment bank Noble Group released a report that points to widespread accounting lapses across the broad index of 500 Indian companies listed on Asia’s oldest bourse, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), and warns of “more Satyams in the pipeline”.

Cheat code: Satyam Computer Services headquarters in Hyderabad. Mahesh Kumar A. / AP

The report suggests that as many as one-fifth of these companies have accounting issues. Noble Group was “disappointed but not surprised” by the Satyam development.

“Our experiences over the past few months...suggest that manipulative accounting and aggressive promoter practices are more common in India than is generally believed to be the case,” the report says.

The group’s analysis shows at least five types of accounting malpractices exist across BSE 500 firms—among them, recording revenue ahead of time, booking “fictitious” sales, expense manipulation and cash manipulation.

At least 30 companies, the report says, recognize revenue at the time of sales. This, it says, is disclosed by worsening cash flow from operating activities despite a rise in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, a widely used measure of profitability.

At least 60 firms on the index, the report says, seem to have booked sales that might actually have come from investment income or other income.

Also, reducing depreciation rates to push expenses to a later period is noticed in at least 10 companies. And at least 15 firms have handed out the bulk of their loans and advances to companies in which their directors have an interest.

“Pump and dump” and “blab and grab” are among the more popular ways that promoters use to push their stock up, according to the report. In the former, the promoter “pumps” up the stock to generate liquidity, follows it up with announcements that send the price up and then “dumps” the holdings.

In the latter, the promoter announces a new venture, even when it has nothing to do with the company’s main business. This infuses fresh funds, which the promoter “grabs”, but then sells his/her own holdings. The new venture is then conveniently postponed, sending the stock price down.

A third method promoters use is to simply siphon off funds during bear markets, when the pressure to show strong earnings is less. The most common method, the report says, is to inflate “other expenses” or “sales and distribution expenses”, or even “miscellaneous expenses”. In bear markets, the report says, such expenses rose by almost 25% (as a percentage of operating expenses).

The problem exists on three fronts: lax accounting rules, weak market regulation and corporate corruption.

In the first category, the report says, there is a lack of restrictions on auditors to do consulting work for the firms they audit.

Second, the Indian market does not seem to place restrictions on how quickly after the year-end a firm has to publish its annual report, which deprives investors of a timely look at the true state of affairs. The report also castigates market regulators that are driven more by political decisions.

And the third fault-line lies, the report says, with the promoters, whose powers are largely unchecked by directors, auditors or regulators.

Still, in the face of all the doom and gloom surrounding Satyam, the report says this is the best time to invest in India, as the markets are unprecedentedly cheap, noting that such scandals do not appear to have an overall bearing on market direction.

Investors must do three basic things before they open their wallets—primary data checks on management, forensic financial analysis and in-depth interviews with management.

Property agents turn auto drivers and fish sellers

The rats are the first to escape a sinking ship. Who will be the last man standing ?? Speculators, black money lenders, banks or builders ?

Ground realty put him in the rickshaw driver's seat

The Metro project and recession brought a slow death to Sediq Sharief's real estate business, reports Malvika Tegta

It's 10.30 in the night. We size up a "gang" of auto drivers from a distance, ready for tough negotiation. A young man of 24 gawkily takes visual cues from the seniors and gestures at us to hop into his autorickshaw. But the way Sediq Sharief double-checks directions is a giveaway: he is just two months into the profession and still discovering the city's insides. Almost a year ago, Sediq lived without a care, worked on an average of 10 hours a month and made a neat Rs20,000. That was till the real estate sector slumped, as the airport went the Devanahalli way, the Metro branched into the interiors of the city and the recession dealt the final blow.

Sediq's smooth moving real estate business soon got traded with the auto. Today the shutters are down on his five-year-old office on Artillery Road and its signboard gathers dust in some distant garage. He is out driving the auto from six in the morning to 12 noon and then again four in the afternoon to one in the night. At the end of the grind, he is left with a paltry Rs150-200 to live another day. But the one thing that has remained constant "since childhood" is the need to be his own boss. "I could have done other jobs too, but when you drive an auto, th e re's no one telling you what to do," he says. Property rates in his domain – Airport Road, Cambridge Layout, Koramangala, Ulsoor and Indiranagar — have crashed by "close to 50%." "There was a time when there were no sellers and only buyers; today there are only sellers and no buyers," he says. Call centre employees, the chunk of his clientele, went from "preferring to stay in middle class areas rather than high-end neighbourhoods like Airport Road or Koramangala" to not calling at all.

Metro only made things worse. "Four agents and I had sealed a deal for Rs65 crore. I would have got close to Rs10 lakh as commission in that one deal alone, but when the government marked a part of the property to be cut later for the Metro, the buyer opted out," he says. Sediq's business had taken him a year to set up, all on his own. "Dealing in houses requires links and a strong network," he says. After one year of getting into the chain of brokers, he said his life was free and there was never a thought spared on how much he spent in a go. Now he feels chained and responsible to earn for the other four members of his family, only one of whom works. Unlike the days when he used to wake up at 10, he now gets up at 5.30 am and goes to bed at 1.30 am, the little sleep he manages being a troubled one at that. He has parted ways with five of his friends who "began to look down on him". As an auto driver, "everyone considers you dirt and even abuses you."

Other switchovers
Sediq Sharief isn't alone in this. Five friends of his have either taken to driving autos, welding, driving oil carriers or opening up tea stalls.

Munnabhai, a broker friend from Coles Park, has left for Bombay to open a boutique there. Kumar, who used to deal in properties worth "lakhs and crores", now runs a "chai shop". Syeed Rehan, known famously on Artillery Road as Mahboob Bhai, now sells fish. "After my shop closed, my income has gone down by Rs10,000-15,000 a month," says Syeed. "Everything has changed, par ghar to chalana hai nahin to bhooke marenge."

Abdul Qader, a property dealer from Ulsoor, has also turned to auto driving. "I earn close to Rs12,000 a month, out of which I pay Rs6,600 monthly as rent for my auto," he says. He had also invested Rs5,00,000 that he got from a property deal in a property, the price of which fell, fetching him a payback of Rs2.5 lakh. The news in the market is that things won't look up anytime before five years. "Par ummeed hai," says Mahboob Bhai.

Roubini interview with Maria Bartiromo

Roubini interviewed by Maria Bartiromo for her Business Week column:

January 7, 2009, Business Week

Columbia's Amar Bhidé and NYU's Nouriel Roubini "When you have an integrated global economy…there are not many places to hide because markets [and economies] become correlated"

By Maria Bartiromo

A year from now we may look back on this column and thank heaven that not all of its grim predictions came true. But don't bet your kid's lunch money against Nouriel Roubini. A professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of the consultancy RGE Monitor, Roubini in 2006 predicted the housing bust and an ensuing recession, among other on-the-money calls. And he says the worst is still ahead. Amar Bhidé, a professor of business at Columbia University, is a former McKinsey executive, a staff member for the commission that investigated the stock market crash of 1987, and author of the new book The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World. He, too, expects a trying year ahead. But beyond the black cloud hanging over America, he sees a country chastened and an economy strengthened by the ordeal.

MARIA BARTIROMO Where are we right now in this economic slowdown?

NOURIEL ROUBINI We are looking at the most severe U.S. recession in the last 50 or 60 years, both in terms of length and depth. Every piece of economic news that's come out in the last few weeks and months has been much worse than expected, from employment, holiday sales, capital spending by the corporate sector, the continued collapse of residential real estate, and a weakening even of the trade balance, so the rest of the world is also contracting.

You say we are looking at a deep and possibly multiyear recession in America; an additional 15% drop in U.S. home prices; painful recessions in Europe, Canada, Japan, and other established economies; a sharp slowdown in China, India, Russia, and Brazil; and possibly default by some emerging-market countries. Can anything stop this locomotive bearing down on us? The only positive news I see is that the policy response, both in the U.S. and in other countries, is going to be quite aggressive. But in my view, that policy stimulus is going to have most of its effects in 2010. And the cost of issuing a huge amount of public debt will be trillion-dollar budget deficits this year and next, which eventually is going to have a crowding-out effect on private demand. So either we issue a huge amount of public debt to finance it, and that's going to push up interest rates, or we print a lot of money that eventually is going to be inflationary and again damaging to the economy. We have no choice but to have an aggressive policy response, but it's not a free lunch.

In a new article in Foreign Policy, you suggest that corporate earnings will shock any equity analysts still deluding themselves. Where will the Dow be at midyear? I see it about 20% below current levels. Same for the S&P.

How many jobs do you think will be lost in 2009? I expect job losses of at least 2.5 million.

How much confidence do you have in the new economic team that President-elect Obama has named? I think folks like Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, and others are as good as you can get. But the problems they're facing are so vast that even the best economic team and the best economic policies are not going to start having an effect until the end of 2009 [or beginning of] 2010.

Do you think criticism of how Hank Paulson and his team have handled the crisis is fair? It was a very tough situation, of course, but I think that the policy response by Paulson has been relatively confused, not credible, and inconsistent. So I give them a low grade in terms of performance.

As an investor, what do I do in this scenario? Safe assets such as government bonds are the place to be until midyear when we see whether the fog of uncertainty clears in the direction of a recovery.

And keep as much of my assets as possible in cash for the near term. Absolutely.

Are there any areas escaping this upset? Are there any places to hide? Unfortunately, when you have an integrated global economy with trade and financial links, there are not really many places to hide because markets become correlated, and economies become highly correlated.

Do you see any positives coming out of this crisis? The U.S. has been living in a situation of excesses for too long. Consumers were out spending more than their income and the country was spending more than its income, running up large current-account deficits. Now we have to tighten our belts and save more. The trouble is that higher savings in the medium term are positive, but in the short run a consumer cutback on consumption makes the economic contraction more severe. That's the paradox of thrift. But we need to save more as a country, and we have to channel more resources to parts of the economy that are more productive. And when you have too many financial engineers and not as many computer engineers, you have a problem.

What do you advise students coming out of school? I think this country needs more people who are going to be entrepreneurs, more people in manufacturing, more people going into sectors that are going to lead to long-run economic growth. When the best minds of the country are all going to Wall Street, there is a distortion in the allocation of human capital to some activities that become excessive and eventually inefficient.

---

MARIA BARTIROMO Nouriel Roubini paints a pretty dire picture of the year ahead. How deep and painful will this recession be?

AMAR BHIDE For some people, extremely painful. For almost everyone, anxious. But I think most people will come out of it fine. In a book I wrote in 1999, I said: "We're in the middle of an Internet bubble, and it's all going to blow up, and it's all going to come to a bad end." After a dinner talk I gave, I was taken aside by a Merrill Lynch broker, and he said: "Look, you may well be right, but nobody became rich in America being a pessimist." And he was dead right. The Internet bubble did blow up, and some people lost their shirts, but the overall process of economic growth and increased prosperity stayed in place. People will redouble their efforts to be more innovative and efficient....

Maria Bartiromo is the anchor of CNBC's Closing Bell.

New York Real Estate Outlook: Mega-Crash

Here is Henry Blodget, the analyst who put a $600 target on Amazon summarizing Goldmans latest analysis on NY real estate. On similar lines Mumbai should crash as well. No more excuses including the followng will be able to prevent this steep drop. Lack of land availability, density, growth, 20 million population, migration, jobs, stock market, diamond market, financial center, Reliance, black money.

Henry Blodget January 8, 2009 4:31 PM
Lockhart Steele at Curbed summarizes Goldman's latest tome on the New York residential real-estate market. . Here's our summary of his summary:
Look out below.
Curbed:
Goldman: "New York apartment prices are very high relative to the observable fundamentals. Using three alternative yardsticks—price/rent, price/income, and affordability—we find that prices would need to decline by 35%-44% to return to the valuation levels seen in the 1995-1999 period, before the start of the recent boom."
Goldman: "Under the (admittedly unrealistic) assumption that prices decline by the same percentage in each market segment, this type of drop would imply that a 1-bedroom condo whose price currently averages roughly $800,000 would decline to $480,000; a 2-bedroom condo would decline from $1.7 million to $1 million; and a 3-bedroom condo would decline from $3 million to $1.8 million."

Goldman: "It is instructive to consider the potential implications of a return of relative Manhattan incomes toward the national norm prevailing before the Wall Street boom of the past two decades, either because of pay cuts in the financial industry or because of a possible out-migration of affluent individuals. From 1969 to 1986, Manhattan per-capita income averaged 2 times the national average, with no clear trend. Over the next two decades, however, it grew to 3 times the national average. If incomes fell back to the pre-1986 level of 2 times the national average—and if national per capita income remained unchanged—prices would need to fall as much as 58% to return to the 1995-1999 price/income ratio.
Goldman: "In addition, it could be that societal and demographic changes will keep New York apartment valuations above the levels that prevailed in earlier periods. For example, one might argue that the memory of high crime rates was still fresh enough in 1995-1999 to make this period an excessively pessimistic benchmark. If crime stays low during the current economic downturn, perhaps Manhattan real estate will retain its higher valuation in coming years. Alternatively, one might argue that the aging of the baby boomers will continue to support the New York market as "empty nesters" want to live closer to the city's attractions. These types of arguments are difficult to quantify and are often heard just prior to the start of a real estate downturn, but they do underscore that our analysis of the observable data on prices, rents, incomes, and interest rates only provides a very partial view of the New York apartment market."
FUN SCARY BONUS GRAPHIC:

Satyam land scam

Leverage gone bad. As I had said, black money operators have been "sub-primed". Expect more of the same as the unwinding continues.

Economic Times reports.
Thanks to Observer for the link

Politics-property combo may have trapped Raju

MUMBAI/BANGALORE: An audacious real estate play is seen as the backdrop for the 54-year-old B Ramalinga Raju’s sudden exit from Satyam Computer
Services, India’s fourth-largest IT company.

The Raju family, said real estate industry sources, might figure among India’s top 10 landlords as it had embarked on a massive land-buying strategy to cash in on the real estate boom in recent years. While the family holds over 6,500 acres through Maytas Properties, the individual members in their personal capacity have significant holdings of agricultural land across south and western India, industry officials said.

Industry and banking sources said the Rajus leveraged their ownership of Satyam, both in terms of shareholding and management control, to fuel other businesses. In fact, one banking source surmised that a key reason for cooking the books could have been to leverage the bull run in the Satyam stock before the market meltdown in the second half of 2008.

The promoters may have needed cash for land acquisitions, particularly around their infrastructure projects that were won on the back of ‘goodwill’, according to these sources.

So how did the Rajus land up with a severe liquidity crunch? One of the theories doing the rounds suggests they were trapped by a murky cocktail of political developments and a real estate crash. In the recent past, Maytas Properties and Maytas Infrastructure had won a number of prestigious projects.

These include the Hyderabad Metro Rail project, Machilipatnam port project and airport projects in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In return, prime land near some of these projects had to be ‘offered’ to the supportive establishment. Several real estate sources claimed there were some instances of Maytas being awarded road projects even without proper bidding. However, ET could not confirm all this independently at the time of going to press.

With the real estate story turning sour, political circles were said to have demanded funds from the family instead of land. “Upcoming elections may have also forced members of the establishment to change their preference from land to money which put them in a fix,” said a Hyderabad-based developer.

Observers said Raju’s sudden admission of fraud had compelling reasons, and was probably done under external pressure to thwart bigger revelations.

In this context, it must be mentioned that Delhi Metro managing director E Sreedharan had called Hyderabad Metro Rail project a “future political scam”. He had objected to the way the government allowed the private consortium to develop land commercially.
Some other rumours floating in Hyderabad claim Satyam’s promoters raised huge funds from tobacco traders in Rayalseema district by pledging Satyam shares. The promoters may have assumed that they would be able to raise funds to recover the pledged shares through an IPO of Maytas Properties. But the downturn in the real estate market derailed Maytas’ IPO plans leading to the promoters being unable to meet margin calls on Satyam shares.

Slumdog Billionaire - Truth be told

"The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones," Raju said in his letter. "I am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and face consequences thereof."

If there is someone who knows to tell a dramatic story, it is B. Raju. Thanks to Anon for the post where the Satyam CEO announced in painless detail the Satya(m) of the balance sheet. Satyam as most employees will attest is a sweat shop. Employees in the US work ridiculous hours and get peanuts for all their efforts. I'm not sure how employees in India are treated. It goes without saying that Satyams's customers will switch to other outsourcing companies and I wont be surprised with US based companies get the right to choose customers as opposed to the India big three. It also looks like we can easily see a layoff of 50% of the workforce in Satyam. What happens to all the mortgages which have been sunk into Hyderabad real estate ? As we saw the stock market took a beating down 750 points, Satyam investors have been wiped out. This is just beginning to get ugly. Maytas and Satyam will be remembered as Worldcom and Enron. The last straw which broke the market's back. Wonder how many more books are cooked by Indian management. The auditors are a joke. God save outsourcing.

Here is good analysis on how the books were cooked.

Here is Raju's candid letter to the SEC. Without regret or remorse, the criminal has bankrupted the company he has founded and will bring Hyderabad to its knees.

Satyam Chairman Fraud Confession

View SlideShare document or Upload your own.

Strong headwinds ahead for outsourcing vendors

Its amazing how much critical mass we have amassed on this blog that real estate folks are now watching it with some more scrutiny.

I appreciate all bouquets and brickbats on behalf of the bulls and bears since this platform is only as worthy as its readers and commentators. Observer, BindasBhai, Shailesh, Shrinwas, Anil, Jayaram, M and others who I've missed deserve credit for their comments.

The goal of this blog to cut beyond the marketing hype perpetuated upon us by the builders thru the media. I am tired of reading soft-marketing articles planted in the newspapers/web which tout moronic analysts quoting the usual bullish rhetoric for real estate.

Just three months ago we heard the FM saying we will grow by 9%. I don't know how a crystal ball gazing FM can make such ludicrous predictions. As soon that the FM makes a prediction all the touts latch on to it and make the rest of us believe that growth will spur demand for real estate/stocks etc. Now when the FM changed his forecast to 6%, who will compensate those investors/buyers who predicated their purchases on this crystal ball ? We all all herd at the mercy of the big bad wolves. If only we can understand this, maybe we will know opportunities arise when sentiments change from euphoria to depression. It is only then when money will regain its worth and gold is found.

I'm not predicting a depression in real estate, however I'm saying a serious correction is in progess and any purchase now without a major discount is just bad investment. It is not often that a buyer is in a driving seat but now is the time to bargain hard and get value for your hard earned money.

The bottom line is cashflow, yield, affordability, credit availablity and job security to sustain any boom in any sector. As of today the Sensex is up 300 points. We'll see how long this rally lasts.

Business Standard reports.

Slowdown to shift focus to hard asset-intensive biz: Tholons.

New Delhi, Jan. 5 The global downturn is expected to impact the growth and margins of the vendors in the outsourcing space for the first 2-3 quarters of 2009, before picking up and ending the year on a stronger note as clients look to cut costs and improve revenue, advisory firm Tholons said.

According to its latest report, ‘Top ten trends in service globalisation — 2009’, the slowdown would also see reduced number of start-ups in the services sector as the focus shifts to sponsoring hard asset-intensive businesses.

“There are strong headwinds for vendors in the outsourcing space … It has become increasingly clear that the downturn is impacting revenue and we expect most large firms will see a decline in the quarter-on-quarter earnings,” it said.
Impact already felt

Service providers have already started feeling the effects of decreased margins and employee downsizing, while buyers are reducing IT budget allocations for outsourcing engagements. This is evidenced by drying pipelines, cancelled bookings and increased pressure to deliver value beyond cost.

“Buyers will need to re-assess their outsourcing strategies and implement a better mix of multi-sourcing, combining nearshore and offshore models, while service providers will look to tap growing domestic markets such as China, India, Argentina, Brazil and even the US as a means to hedge against the volatility of existing offshore contracts,” Mr Avinash Vashistha, Global Managing Partner & CEO at Tholons, said.

Clients, with reduced IT budgets, are expected to turn more selective, demanding greater contractual flexibility and output- or result-based payment schemes.
Eye on opportunities

Terming 2008 as a “tumultuous year for outsourcing”, Tholons said that although it continued to advise clients to remain cautious this year, it did not discount the opportunities and potential evident in the market.

It further said that the global downturn is motivating service providers to focus on recession-proof industries such as healthcare and education. “The healthcare industry globally has been a good adopter of global outsourcing in the last couple of years and we see this trend continuing on a steep curve as we look towards 2015,” says Dr Garima Vashistha, President (Healthcare) at Tholons.

Other sectors like manufacturing, retail and telecom would start to look attractive as they come under pressure to reduce cost drastically to survive.

Consolidation in the financial sector is inevitable due to the global financial crisis. Increased merger and acquisition activity in the financial sector would also mean that merged entities would want to integrate their outsourced services — leading to an increase in spending for integration projects — software applications, data centre consolidation and tighter integration of other operational platforms.

With financial institutions such as Lloyds TSB/HBOS and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch merging, service providers would also find themselves bidding against incumbent transnational rivals like IBM, Accenture and HP-EDS for several large-scale integration contracts (valued anywhere between $500 million and $1 billion over five years). Pricing pressures would kick in as suppliers scramble to meet their quarterly target through the year.

Large India-based providers are expected to see EBITDA margins plunge below 20 per cent over the next three years, as they move more IT projects offshore (mostly to India), and struggle to balance operations with rising wages, Tholons said.

Jobs, Stocks and Real estate - A tale of two Valley's

Many comments to my previous post pointed out to the worsening job market with layoffs and hiring freezes the order of the day in the US and India. Its no suprise then that stocks markets in both places have taken a beating anticipating a downturn and restricted credit availability due to lack of credit worthiness. Why will a bank lend 300k to someone whose job in on shaky ground ? Over the holidays I met few friends and we discussed this issues and I heard horror story after horry story on how Indian Hi-Tech engineers who have purchased housing over the past 3 years are well under 200k of their purchase price. Now many of the folks are getting laid of and it is not a pretty sight.

I met another friend of mine who is a manager in a top networking company. He said all across the company they are retrenching contractors and he has lost 50% of this contract staff over the last month. No guesses for figuring out the name of this offshoring company - Infosys. When we add up the loss of revenue for all the retrenched onsite Infosys employees who are billed at $115k but paid between 60-80k, the final number is pretty omnious. Add to that the loss of offshore resources which are retrenched who will swell the bench strength to levels not seen ever. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the guidance from management going forward will be poor. Based on the drops in marigns I expect we can easily see a drop of 50% in the Infy stock price. Buying an April 09 put at $15.00 for 0.75 cents is probably a worthwhile risk taking play. If one is more risk averse maybe the 20$ put works better.

Its a nobrainer that the stock market in India will take a beating once these numbers are announced. All the suckers who have bought the market thinking the RBI stimulus will boost the economy will again get massacared.

The loss of jobs, leading to the decline of the stock market will logically lead to a drop in real estate. All the RBI rhetoric to lower rates will yield no effect if the job situation is dismal. We have to realise that the Indian bubble was fuelled on the legs of a strong job market and low credit rates. Now the market has lost one of its legs. As the author of the world is flat argued, A housewife in Japan is saving more then average and financing the housing boom in the US which in turn financed the tech industry which financed the offshoring contract shops. With the US housing turning on its back, there is an upheaveal to be felt by all the downstream interconnected companies which in turn has to effect jobs in India and subsequently housing.

All the decoupling morons have been proven wrong and this anecdote vindicates the simplicty with which markets can operate without all the bumbo jumbo math of CDO's

Thanks to anon for posting this video

Barons article on the Indian stock market. Says wait for 15 months. They definitely have a crystal ball

http://online.barrons.com/article_print/SB123094654808750783.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Why India Won’t Rebound Soon
By VEN RAM

India’s stock market may look attractive after its massive slide, but there’s probably more pain to come. A host of economic and political challenges could keep a new bull market at bay for more than a year.
FOR THOSE TEMPTED TO WADE INTO THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET with a view to making a quick killing after its massive slide, consider the advice that Punch magazine once gave a person who was about to marry: Don’t.

Although India’s benchmark Sensex has fallen about 55% from its peak a year ago, the market is still not attractive as a short-term investment. November’s terror attacks in Mumbai aren’t even the half of it: The Indian economy, valuation issues and broad political uncertainty all argue for real caution…

“Even as absolute valuations have corrected, India’s relative valuations remain rich,” says Ridham Desai, India Strategist at Morgan Stanley. The market’s price-to-earnings multiple, based on expected earnings for the next 12 months, is 60% higher than that of emerging markets as a group. And its price-to-book ratio is a whopping 72% higher.

India fares no better on the dividend-yield front. The roughly 2% dividend yield on the Sensex pales in comparison to what is available in some of the more advanced economies. The dividend yield for the Australian market, for example, is an eye-popping 6.5%, while most other regional markets offer yields well north of 5%.

Seshadri Sen, Associate Director, Research and India strategist at Macquarie Capital Securities, says that even though the Indian markets are trading at just nine times forward earnings, investors need to exercise caution in interpreting that multiple.

“With all the earnings cuts that we have seen from companies, what appears cheap may not be so,” he says. “We are seeing a fairly sharp slowdown in the economy, but it remains to be seen whether the markets have discounted all the bad news that is in store.”

…

The Bottom Line:

A new bull market in India may be at least 15 months away, thanks to a host of economic and political challenges.

Here is an article on a AAA rated housing loan which was sold at 10 cents on the dollar

The Mortgage Crisis, Explained

Michael Phillips of the Wall Street Journal tells the story of a shack in Arizona owned by a woman who hasn't worked in 13 years that was valued at $130,000 two years ago by a crooked appraiser and mortgaged by a broker who was paid $10,000 in fees and took no loan risk.

Then Phillips tracks the loan through Wells Fargo to HSBC, where it was packed into a mortgage-backed security, rated Triple-A by Moody's and S&P, and sold to, among others, the Oklahoma Teachers pension plan and PIMCO.

Happy new year and hurrah for 2008

Tis the time of the year to reflect on the year gone by and to plan ahead. As most people will agree 2008 was the year to bury leverage for good. Borrowers with good credit saw rates go up regardless and there were no prizes to be won for being a good kid and being frugual in your livestyle. Everyone got hit pretty bad. The difference being that the prudent investor still can rebound whenever the market turns, however the speculator is bankrupt and will have to restart his life from scratch to recoup the money back lost in the de-leveraging process.

2008 also put an end to the lot of myths about real estate
1. Real estate never goes down. Oops it just did.

2. Black money will support the market. Oops Black money speculators lost heavily in the market.

3. NRI's will come in droves. Oops NRI's lost jobs and returned back with empty pockets thanks to the decline in their 401k's and stock investments

4. Outsourcing will increase inspite of US downturn. Another big OOPS. With the collapse of Wall St. institutions, the need for systems engineering has collapsed as well. Add to that except for the top 4 outsourcing vendors, none can differentiate themsevles in any way and are competing by lowering prices. We all know what happens when prices go down!!

5. Sensex was supposed to hit 25000. Oops it closed at 9600 for 2008. If one takes the closing Sensex of Dec 31st 2005 of 9300, we had a massive gain of 3% over 3 years, annualized at 1% per year. Fantastic achivement by any standards, Dalal Street Einstiens.

As we move into 2009 I'm expecting the following for Indian real estate.

1. RBI will cut PLR to get loan rates to 2004 levels.

2. It is best to buy property nearing completion from investors. There is no point in buying directly from the builder when there are thousands of flats which are held by bleeding speculators.

3. We will see investors dumping flats as their jobs situation worsens. US is going thru major layoffs and that will have an effect on the Indian market was well. Some work will get outsourced but that gain will be compensated by the loss of Wall St business, some of which have closed for good. We will see layoffs and paycuts in the Indian industry in general, IT or otherwise.

4. NRI's who plan to live abroad will dump their holdings in India. It is cheaper to buy primary or investment property in the US with a better rental yield and lower mortgage then to keep their holdings in India. 2009 will bring out all these rats out of their holes.

5. Media will keep proping prices by issuing advertorials. The more research the buyer does the better. If it sounds too good, stay away. If they promise you the moon, you will get to live on it.

6. All the Abdullah's and Bindas Bhai's of India, cannot prevent humpty dumpty from having a big fall yet again in 2009. 2008 was the year of denial. 2009 is the year of acceptance.

To all the readers, commentators, bulls, bears or otherwise Have a Happy, Safe and Prudent 2009. We all learn from the collective knowledge, information and opinions we share. Happy posting.