India Swaps to Rise on Record Jump in Rate, Morgan Stanley Says

Let the party begin. BoooYaaah. Loan interest rates will go back to 12-13% from 9-10% a jump of 20%. Expect EMI's to rise by greater then 20%. Borrowing costs for builders will jump too and they will want to pass this to the customer, thereby forcing a further decline in affordability. There are no political compulsions for the government to keep rates low. They will use the next few years to reverse the bogus interest policy implemented by the supposedly independent RBI over the past few years. I feel sorry for speculators in Mumbai as the crash in stock markets is going to resonate loudly in the real estate sector. Be very careful of under construction projects. They will hold the biggest risk to the buyer.

By V. Ramakrishnan and Anil Varma

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- India’s swap rates will surge as the central bank increases the benchmark borrowing costs by a record 1.5 percentage points this year to curb inflation, Morgan Stanley said.

The cost of swaps that mature in a year will rise 0.52 percentage point to 5.5 percent by April, Morgan Stanley India Primary Dealer Pvt. Ltd. said. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Jan. 29 estimated wholesale-price gains will quicken to 8.5 percent by March from as little as 0.5 percent in September. He also raised reserve requirements for banks and said interest rates will increase “in future.”

“Inflation is becoming a bigger worry and that sets the tone for higher interest rates going forward,” Manoj Swain, Chief Executive Officer at Mumbai-based Morgan Stanley India Primary Dealer, said in an interview. “Upward pressure on swaps will increase because of the rising requirement to hedge against higher rates and tighter liquidity.”

Read more here

Schiller's Bubble diagnosis

Shiller’s List: How to Diagnose the Next BubbleJanuary 27, 2010, 7:33 am —

Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or dot-com shares

Great public excitement about said increases

An accompanying media frenzy

Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t

Growing interest in the asset class among the general public“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases

A decline in lending standardsIf your asset class is suffering from these symptoms, consult your neighborhood economist or licensed broker, and maybe a good psychotherapist, too.

Here is the link

Outsourcing dollars fund real estate in Bangalore

The big headline in the following story is that Sobha has called off his deal with Shriram properties but the bigger headline is that Infosys founder N.S. Raghavan sold off his Infosys stock and now is investing in land and my guess is in locations close to Infosys campuses all over India. One has to read between to lines to see the impact Infosys, Wipro and other outsourcing companies have on Bangalore real estate. The investment made by Raghavan to the tune of 225 crores is the entire turnover of Sobha for a fiscial year. It appears that Raghavan got a bargain for his price. Will Raghavan get into the consturction business ? Only time will tell.

Sobha Developers calls off land sale talks with Shriram Properties
Text:
BANGALORE: Sobha Developers, which was in talks with Shriram Properties for the sale of around 400 acres in four cities, is learnt to have called
off its negotiations following differences over price, people familiar with the matter told ET. While Sobha confirmed that talks have been called off, it did not provide details. Shriram Properties MD M Murli said his company was "not pursuing the deal aggressively." Some of the land the firm had put up for sale include 100 acre at Hinjewadi in Pune, 3.8 acres on St Marks Road, Bangalore, 7 acres of NBCC land behind the Bangalore railway station, 330 acres comprising two islands of Valanthakad & Nadukeri and adjoining lands in Manakunnam & Thekumbaghom villages in Kochi. The total value of these land could be between Rs 600 and 800 crore, according to estimates by Mumbai-based research firm Enam Securities. The latest move by Sobha Developers comes after it managed to strike a deal with an investment fund owned by Infosys co-founder N S Raghavan to raise Rs 225 crore by selling a part of its land bank. The company has also managed to reschedule a substantial part of its loan portfolio. Last year, Sobha raised around Rs 530 crore by diluting close to 22.5% equity through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). Sobha MD J C Sharma had earlier told ET that the company was looking at a stake dilution of up to 25% at the project level through a special purpose vehicle. While the deal would have generated the much-needed cash for Sobha to develop its projects, it would have also helped Shriram Properties, a part of the $5.5-billion Chennai-based Shriram group, scale up its size in the residential market. In fact, Murli of Shriram Properties had earlier said that the firm was in talks to buy 1,500 acres of distressed assets which could be land with development rights, projects under development or mid-sized real estate company. The company was eyeing bad assets in Mumbai, Pune and Ahmedabad which were available at throwaway prices to expand its presence in the market. Shriram has completed projects covering 4.5 million sq ft in Bangalore, Chennai, Coimbatore and Kolkata and has 9 million sq ft of residential space under various stages of development in Bangalore, Chennai, Vizag and Kolkata. Sobha has sold 3.92 lakh sq ft space in Q2 of this financial year compared to 2.5 lakh sqft in Q1. Currently, it has about 9 million sqft of ongoing projects. The company's Q2 net profit was down to Rs 27.5 crore versus Rs 51.3 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The turnover during the same period was Rs 226.3 crore as against Rs 230.4 crore last year. Walton Street Capital made its first investment in India through Shriram Properties.

Bubble Bursts for India's Once-Booming Real Estate Market

Bubble Bursts for India's Once-Booming Real Estate Market

(MUMBAI, INDIA) -- After nearly four years of aggressive growth, India's once-booming real estate market is in a freefall.

In an eye-opening analysis, Business Monitor International of Blackfriars, London, and Fast Market Research of Williamstown, MA are reporting:

Prices have dropped 20-40% since their peak.
Property sales have fallen over 50% year-on-year.
Developers are burdened with many unsold and unfinished projects.
Bank lending has tightened.
REITs have lost 80% of their value.

"Potential buyers are delaying purchases in the hope that prices will go down further," according to the report. First-home buyers are seen as a major driver for the residential segment. Luxury residential prices fell dramatically in early 2009.

Demand is sharply down. "Affordability is now one of the main drivers in the residential market," the report notes. "There has been resurgent interest by developers in affordable housing schemes, especially as the market has stalled for luxury houses and apartments."

The report cites Chanda Kochhar, the incoming chief executive of the ICICI Bank India's largest private bank, who said in February 2009 that real estate prices still need to fall by at least 20% if the market is to pick up.

The share prices of Real Estate Investment Trusts have fallen in value by up to 80% since their peak.

There’s a cloud over middle-class dreams of affordable homes

Reaching The Roof


Unaffordable Housing?
Around 15% price escalation in last six months hitting demand for affordable housing projects
Low appetite for risk, commute distance or drawbacks in infrastructure is holding back buyers
Perceptions of affordable housing differs across cities and income groups
Price is a starting point, but most consumers are also seeking quality and infrastructure

Similarly, PropEquity’s report till early November 2009 indicates that there has been better offtake in the sub-Rs 15 lakh category, particularly at locations closer to large cities. Overall, of the 90,000 units available in the ‘affordable’ category, only 40,000 had been bought. Describing 40 per cent absorption as not bad by industry standards, Jasuja adds that with market sentiments improving sales have since inched up.

Developers point out that land cost is a big decider in the final price tag. That’s why many projects are coming up further away from big cities. Where transportation and other facilities compensate, there is no lack of takers. Falcon Realty Services has got good response for its 2,500 units priced at Rs 5.9 lakh-Rs 28 lakh at Global Eco City, a 45-minute drive from Delhi international airport. Good facilities, including transportation, is proving the clincher.

As Rajiv Mehrotra of Noida-based Sunshine Enterprises puts it, “Demand is there, but there are hardly any houses below Rs 20 lakh available.” Already staring at rising inflation, people’s euphoria over affordable housing looks likely to fade—unless the government lends a helping hand.

Buy a house, get mesothelmia free

This land deal proves the absolute callous disregard of the BMC to heath and the environment of its citizens. Asbestos is well documented to cause lung cancer and there are thousands of lawsuits filed in the US against companies which flouted asbestos health regulations. Mesothelioma is one of the deadliest types of cancer caused by asbestos here we have BMC approving the building plan of 1100 apartments on contaminated land. I'm assuming that these 18 acres housed a factory which made chemical products including asbestos. It is indeed a shameful day in Mumbai today.

Here is the wikipedia entry for Asbestos.

Mesothelioma is a form of cancer that is almost always caused by exposure to asbestos. In this disease, malignant cells develop in the mesothelium, a protective lining that covers most of the body's internal organs. Its most common site is the pleura (outer lining of the lungs and internal chest wall), but it may also occur in the peritoneum (the lining of the abdominal cavity), the heart,^[1] the pericardium (a sac that surrounds the heart) or tunica vaginalis.

Most people who develop mesothelioma have worked on jobs where they inhaled asbestos particles, or they have been exposed to asbestos dust and fiber in other ways. It has also been suggested that washing the clothes of a family member who worked with asbestos can put a person at risk for developing mesothelioma.^[2] Unlike lung cancer, there is no association between mesothelioma and smoking, but smoking greatly increases the risk of other asbestos-induced cancers.^[3] Compensation via asbestos funds or lawsuits is an important issue in mesothelioma (see asbestos and the law).

and here is the entire DNA article.

Ghatkopar land sold to Wadhwa for Rs571 crore

In a major land deal in the city, asbestos products maker Hindustan Composites announced, on Monday, that it would sell its 18-acre property on LBS Marg, Ghatkopar to the Mumbai-based Wadhwa Group for Rs571 crore. Including the stamp duty, the value of the land is expected to go up to Rs600 crore with the land rate roughly working out to be Rs4,000 per square feet.

Vijay Wadhwa, chairman, Wadhwa Group said that they have taken a loan of approximately Rs300 crore from IndiaBulls Financial Services Ltd and raised the balance Rs271 crore by way of sales and discounting a few of properties they had leased.

Realty experts said the deal would provide Wadhwa with the much needed confidence. Coupled with global slowdown, the group had over-stretched itself after it had successfully bid Rs831 crore for a plot at Bandra Kurla Complex in 2007.

Many funds like Morgan Stanley had refused to back Wadhwa in the Composites land deal as they did not agree to the costing and profits projected by the developer.

“I always knew that the project cost will go over Rs7,000 per square feet as the plot is strategically located and also with the kind of development we have planned,” Wadhwa said. “In fact I have already sold 2.5 lakh square feet at Rs8,500 per square feet.”

The developer has plans to set up at least 15 residential buildings with over 1,100 apartments on land, which has a development potential of about 15 lakh square feet. Also, this development potential could go up substantially if Wadhwa takes advantage of the government’s parking FSI of 4.

Indian economists are dumb - Asian Development Bank

ADB economists are practically saying that the RBI and the Indian government are the main characters in the Bollywood remake of the movie Dumb and Dumber. Who cares about wholesale inflation when citizens have to face consumer price index inflation every time they visit the store. The CPI numbers are staggering and the government is doing its best to hold interest rates low, to allow for big projects to take off at subsidized loans. They are afraid to upset the apple cart, lest they be seen as the reason for the collapse of the Indian stock market. With huge vested interests in real estate all over the country, Indian politicians are responsible for the mayhem caused to the common man whether it is to run his household or to buy his long cherished dwelling.

Business Standard reports

India's inflation indicator confusing, inconsistent: ADB
Press Trust of India / New Delhi January 15, 2010, 22:05 IST
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today suggested that policy makers in India should consider making the Consumer Price Index the main barometer of inflation as the current system of measuring the rate of price rise on both retail and wholesale prices is creating confusion.
Inflation measured in terms of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), experts say, is irrelevant at a time when the retail prices are very high. And there is at present a huge gap between retail and wholesale price inflation indices. The difference is due to the high weightage of food items in consumer price indices than wholesale price index.
"Policymakers should make the consumer price index the primary indicator of inflation instead of current two-tier measurement system which leads to inconsistencies and confusion," the multilateral lending agency said in a study.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices, but in India there are many measures of this index.
Inflation measured by wholesale rates vaulted to more than a year's high 7.31 per cent in December on higher food prices, mainly sugar, pulses and potato, adding to the government's worries about price rise.
Sugar prices rose 53.98 per cent in December. Sugar in the retail market is selling at nearly Rs 50 a kg.
However, consumer price inflation for agriculture labour and rural labour stood at 15.65 per cent each in November, while retail inflation for industrial workers was 13.5 per cent.
Rising food inflation-- close to 20 per cent -- has been a cause of concern for the government.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee too had voiced concern at a recent pre-budget meeting with the states Finance Ministers here.

The price for bravery

Brave RTI activist hacked to death by Pune goons
Prashant Aher / DNA

Mumbai: A prominent right to information (RTI) activist was murdered in Talegaon Dabhade district of Pune on Wednesday morning.

Satish Shetty, 38, was attacked by three to four masked men with butcher’s knives when he was reading a newspaper at a kiosk at around 7 on his way home from a morning walk.

Shetty had shot to fame after exposing corrupt land deals and illegal constructions in Lonavala and Pimpri-Chinchwad. Recently, he had complained against a Lonavla sub-registrar, Ashwini Kshirsagar, to the inspector-general of registration and commissioner of stamps, following which the official was suspended.

Shetty had alleged that Kshirsagar was involved in illegal land transactions worth lakhs. “Shetty had filed an application a few days back with the Talegaon police station claiming he was facing a threat to his life,” said Pratap Dighavkar, superintendent of police (rural), Pune.

“We sent the application to Lonavala’s deputy superintendent of police for investigation.” He said Shetty had met him two days ago, but did not specifically speak about the threat.

After he was attacked, Shetty started running away from the kiosk, with the goons in pursuit.

But they soon overpowered him and repeatedly stabbed him with the knives in the head and hands, before fleeing. The local residents contacted Shetty’s brother Sandip, who rushed him to hospital, where he was declared brought dead.

The police pressed into service sniffer dogs and fingerprint experts to identify the suspects. Dighavkar said four police teams have been formed to probe the incident.

Non Congress governed states prone to less scams and bubbles

Looking at the ease at which Yedurappa made the announcement about $27 Billion dollars of investment makes me wonder if BJP is more business friendly then the pro-liberalization Congress party. Gujarat and Karnataka both BJP governed states have been attracting business investment by the likes of Tata and Mittals. Even Tamil Nadu under DMK has a good track record for being business friendly. Compare this to Maharashtra and AP under Congress and those two states have been under turmoil for years with scam after scam being reported involving the government officials and politicians. If one has to bet on jobs I would say Chennai and Bangalore would lead the job-growth in India for the next few years.

Here is IBNlive's article on the investment

Cement to steel, K'taka clears $27.5-bn projects

New Delhi: Karnataka has cleared 38 big-ticket projects worth Rs 138,000 crore ($27.5 billion), and hopes soon to finalise the mega investment proposals from global steel makers ArcelorMittal and South Korea's Posco.
Speaking to reporters after a meeting with the chairman of Arcelor Mittal, L N Mittal, Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa said these projects collectively have the potential to generate employment for 92,000 people in the state.
"Nearly 60 percent of these investments would be in north Karnataka," said Yeddyurappa, explaining that the primary focus of his government was to ensure development in the most backward regions of the state.

Read more

Strategic Defaults rising

John Courson, president and C.E.O. of the Mortgage Bankers Association, recently told The Wall Street Journal that homeowners who default on their mortgages should think about the “message” they will send to “their family and their kids and their friends.” Courson was implying that homeowners — record numbers of whom continue to default — have a responsibility to make good. He wasn’t referring to the people who have no choice, who can’t afford their payments. He was speaking about the rising number of folks who are voluntarily choosing not to pay.

Human Empire

Such voluntary defaults are a new phenomenon. Time was, Americans would do anything to pay their mortgage — forgo a new car or a vacation, even put a younger family member to work. But the housing collapse left 10.7 million families owing more than their homes are worth. So some of them are making a calculated decision to hang onto their money and let their homes go. Is this irresponsible?

Read more

Mall mania fades in Mumbai

Among the biggest developers to make this switch is realty firm Dynamix Balwas (DB Group), which shelved its ambitious retail venture to build the country’s largest shopping mall (over 10 lakh sq ft) in Dahisar after spending over a year planning and designing it.

The developer is now constructing low-income, budget homes on the land purchased for the Rs700-crore Dahisar mall, which was to be called Ozone Orchid. The group had earlier converted a mall project in Kandivli into a housing complex.

Orbit Corporation, a south Mumbai realtor, has also decided to convert a 2.5 lakh sq ft commercial development called Hafeez Contractor House in Lower Parel into a residential project. Ackruti City converted its more than 7 lakh sq ft mall space at Andheri into a residential and commercial complex. Dreams Mall, spread across

Mall mania fades in Mumbai

Predictions for 2010

Hi all,

The blog has gone little dormant. How about your predictions for 2010?

What will be status of Housing in India?
Will RE boom continue or Bust start?
How much?
Best growth areas in India?

any other predictions....