New real estate bill worries builders

NDTV.com reports. Will this regulator be as toothless as SEBI.  One more department for the builders to grease. All the regulator needs to do is crack down on the black money component. Everything else will fall into place. Who will bell the cat ? Not anytime soon is my guess

The government is all set to tighten the noose around the realty industry. Under the provisions of the new real estate bill, developers may have to face stringent reporting norms.

Besides recommending a regulator for the real estate sector, the new bill also mandates the auditing of account books every quarter. NDTV has learnt that the audit of real estate companies will be conducted by auditors approved by the regulator.

As a result, the realty sector is clearly worried saying that quarterly audit amounts to overregulation.

But what does the government hope to achieve through a real estate regulator and quarterly audits. It is believed that by doing this the government is looking to keep a track on sale of properties besides having clarity on developer’s land bank. The government is also looking to overvaluation of land in accounts.

For the realty sector which is used to work in an unorganised fashion, the real estate regulator is expected to bring in proper regulation.

The bill soon coming up for clearance at the Cabinet also gives the regulator power to cancel the license of a property developer on violation of their guidelines – a step welcomed by many experts who feel that it is high time the government steps in.

It remains to be seen how far the law could be implemented, if at all it gets Cabinet approval as land is a state subject and would need active participation from the states.

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WSJ - Better to Buy or Rent?

The full article is here.

The San Jose CPA is advising to base the rent vs buy decision on a simple formula of dividing the home price with the annual rent and then checking if the result is less than15

Indian housing has to deal with 2 other negative factors as opposed to the US. Mortgage rates are two times US rates and there is 40% black money angle to properties in Mumbai. Both these factors affect the affordability of housing for the salaried employee. Add to that the US has a tax credit of $8,000, if the house is bought before Dec 1st, 2009. 

On the NRI H-1b perspective immigration backlogs prevent anyone taking a house purchase risk as any layoff can kill the home ownership dream in a second.

All this goes to say that the US government does far greater things to facilitate an easier lifestyle for its citizens and permanent residents. Motivated people all over the world work equally hard but the US and western countries provide its citizens an affordable high quality of life which only citizens of developing countries can dream of.

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With housing prices down significantly in many parts of the country and interest rates low, it may be an affordable time for twentysomethings to buy that first home.

In some instances, the price of owning can be comparable to renting in the long run. But a lot of uncertainty still remains about the housing market and the economy -- making the decision to buy more complicated.

Nicole Stivers, a 24-year-old who works in public relations in Contra Costa County, Calif., purchased her first home with her fiancé in February. They were able to capitalize on what she calls a "perfect storm" -- job stability, a desire to settle down, a surge in home foreclosures and the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers.

Still, the move was not without its concerns. "Would we be able to afford this if we both lost our jobs? Do we have enough for a down payment? Do I have enough for moving? It's really nerve-racking when you're first doing it," says Ms. Stivers.

Here are some questions to consider when deciding if buying or renting is the right choice for you:

How long do you plan to stay in your home? "There are high transaction costs associated with buying and selling" a house, says Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, so home buyers should plan to stay put for at least four to five years.

The reasoning? The costs for buying and then selling a home -- which can include a real-estate agent's fee, a transfer fee, closing costs, and inspector and surveyor fees -- could add up to about 10% of the sale price, or roughly 1½ years worth of rent. "If you average that over 10 years, it is not that big a deal," says Mr. Baker. "But if you average it over, say two years, you're paying an awful lot of money to own a house for a short period of time."

Can you handle the monthly expense? While a monthly mortgage payment may be comparable in some cases to a monthly rent, there are other expenses to consider.

To get a feel for the financial burden you'll be taking on -- and to see if you can handle it -- "practice" making payments. Each month, set aside projected mortgage and property-tax payments, maintenance costs, utilities and any other home-related expenses into a separate savings account, says Gary Smola, a certified financial planner with financial-educational firm Financial Finesse.

What's the price-to-rent ratio? Home prices have come down significantly in some areas of the country, but "nobody knows what tomorrow's going to bring in the housing market," says Daniel Morris, a certified public accountant in San Jose, Calif.

To determine whether it makes more financial sense to buy or rent in your area, compare home sales prices with the cost of renting a similar place.

Divide the price of the home by the total cost of rent for one year. If the result is more than 20, "I'd be very concerned that the price [of the home] might fall more," says Mr. Baker, and you should consider waiting to buy. If it's 15 or below, he says, "you're probably reasonably safe" with prices holding steady or growing.

What is your job and relationship status? Twentysomethings are still getting a grasp on their futures and a constantly changing lifestyle might require the flexibility of renting.

But "if your career stability is strong, you are comfortable doing what you're doing … and you are committed in some form to your lifestyle," Mr. Morris says, buying a home becomes a more attractive option.

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How to become bankrupt once a loan is approved

As everyone knows the availablity of home loans in India has propelled the market to new highs in 2007, sometimes upto 300% in 3 years. Most homes are unaffordable to the average Indian who is somehow supposed to magically generate money out of think air. Indian loan rates are double that of the US so the average interest payment on a loan is more twice of an average US loan. Someone suggested in one of the comments on how one can double money in 3 years by buying a property. Lets analyse this myth and see if the investor doubles this money or just goes bankrupt.

Property value total including registration : 1,00,00,000 (1cr)

downpayment : 15L

loan amount: : 85L

interest rate: : 10%

loan period : 20 years

EMI : 82026.84

payment towards interest 1st year : 8.4L

toal payment towards interest after 2nd year : 16.7L

total payment towards interest after 3rd yar : 24.8L

total principal paid in 3 years : 3.5 L

Total equity in house : 15 + 3.5L = 18.5L

Loan early termination fee 1% of oustanding principal : 1% of 80L = 80k

After 3 years the property has to sell for atleast (1.25 +80k ) = ~1.26 crore to break

Lets tabulate the gains based on the projected returns.

increase = -20% gain = -46%

increase = -10% gain = -36%

increase = 0% gain = -24%

increase = 26% gain = 0%

increase = 50% gain = +129%

increase = 100% gain = +400%

All we can say is that leverage is a high risk, high reward game. If you have the guts to lose 50% of capital or 46L in 3 years, you can make anything from 129% to 400% in that same period.

All the best to the risk takers. You deserve the reward as it is commensurate to the risk.

 The above example is more relevant for an leveraged investor.  Let us now think from the point of view of the renter. If the annual rent is 3.6L,  over 3 years the renter pays approx 11L for 3 years. It makes sense for the renter to buy an apt for a price where EMI is closer to rent, rather then further way. Its more common sense then any complex math

Lets do the same calculations for a 60L apt with a rent of 20k

price 60L

downpayment 15L

loan                   45L

tenure               20 years

interest rate    10%

EMI                   43400

total interest over 3 years : 13.1L

total principal paid             : 2.4L

total equity                          : 17.4L

total rent paid  over 3 years  : 7L

here a 3 year rent payment leaves only 5L as a difference over 3 years over the interest paid. 

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Macro Markets and Micro Markets poll

Lets take a poll of where bloggers would like to buy (apt/plot/independent house) and at what price. Also lets list the reasons for the selection. It could be close to work-place, relatives or snob value for all you know. Also list whether you are NRI or not and if salaried or businessman. If you have multiple choices lets list them as well. Agents like BB please stay off commenting on the thread. Let me start

1a. Mumbai apt  Vile-Parle(East)     8k(current price 12k)  - NRI - salaried - work/relatives

1b. Pune       apt  Kalyani Nagar        4k (current price 5k)   -  NRI - salaried - work/snob value

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Tim Giethner cannot sell his house

if the US treasury secretary cannot price his house accurately to reflect the market, how can we expect any other seller to be realistic in this market.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Home Crisis Investigation
www.thedailyshow.com
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Most property project delays in Ghaziabad, Gurgaon: Study

Ghaziabad and Gurgaon, the satellite towns in the National Capital Region (NCR), led in terms of the highest proportion of property projects delayed in the country, which were scheduled for completion in 2008 and onwards, a new study has found.

Both these suburbs have 71 per cent of projects delayed, as against the total number of projects scheduled for completion in 2008 and onwards, a study by real estate research firm PropEquity said.

In Bangalore, 309 of the 575 projects were delayed and the average delay in these projects was nine months. In Pune, 305 of 665 projects were delayed, with an average of eight months. Mumbai came third, with 233 of 501 projects, with an average delay of nine months, the study said.

“A lot of developers were diverting funds meant for a project to other projects, hence cash flow was an issue. Their order book was more than what they could actually execute. Many smaller developers jumped into the property sector and they could not complete the projects, resulting in delays,” said Samir Jasuja, founder and chief executive of PropEquity.

Thane, Mumbai and Gurgaon ranked first, second and third, respectively, in terms of percentage price drop in apartments in the country, as economic downturn and dwindling incomes of home buyers impacted property sales and led to a drop in prices. Between May of 2008 and 2009, Thane (a far eastern suburb of Mumbai), Mumbai and Gurgaon witnessed a drop of 22 per cent, 20 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively.

Most property project delays in Ghaziabad, Gurgaon: Study

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Reality Expo-2009 gets good response

Deccan Herald reports. Does anyone think the Times of India article on saturday will be any different ?

The exhibition, that has stalls of around 30 developers and housing finance institutions, is expected to have more than 7,000 footfalls.

The rush to own homes in Bangalore was evident at the registration counter, as Karnataka Ownership Apartments Promoters Association (KOAPA) kicked off Reality-2009, its two-day real estate exhibition, on Saturday August 15th, 2009

The exhibition, that has stalls of around 30 developers and housing finance institutions, is expected to have more than 7,000 footfalls.

It will continue at the Grand Ashok on Sunday, between 10 am and 8 pm. The registration fee is Rs 50.

The exhibition features a huge project map of Bangalore City with the various properties of the participating builders marked on it. All the top-of-the-line industry players — including Total Environment, Golden Gate, Sobha Developers, Vaswani Estates, Mantri Developers, Gopalan Enterprises, Puravankara Projects, Brigade Group, Ranka Group, Vakil Housing Development Corporation and Kristal Group — have put up stalls at the venue.

Upcoming high-end projects, including Mantri’s Espana and Purvankara’s Venezia, had many enquiries on the first day. The stall put up by Total Environment — highlighting the use of natural materials like wire-cut bricks and exposed form-finish concrete — also got the visitors coming in. Some of the visitors found the prices steep, but were content with the choices on offer.

“The exhibition helps in keeping a tab on the actual property prices in Bangalore. The different finance options under one roof, also help the decision-making easier,” said Deepan, a chartered accountant.



Finance options

The developers are also offering financing options in association with many banks. That apart, LIC Housing Finance, ICICI Home Loans and HSBC have put up stalls at the expo. “We are offering a flat rate of Rs 5,000 as processing fee, and not the normal rate of one per cent of the loan amount taken. If the documents are pucca, we are also offering spot loan approvals,” said Sridhar, Area Manager, LIC Housing Finance, that also sponsors Reality 2009.

“The event offers a great opportunity for the buyers to avail competitive prices and special offers by builders and financial organisations,” said Mr Balakrishna Hegde, President, KOAPA. The expo was inaugurated Mr S K Mitter, Director and Chief Executive, LIC Housing Finance Ltd.

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Change of plans

I just came across this article on DNA India and I am really appalled by the justified two timing by the real estate developers and builders. Is this even legal?

"Residentials hot, commercial space not.

With developers forced to return to the drawing board to make projects financially viable, the landscape is, indeed, changing."

Many commercial property areas are supposed to be only commercial. Its a way to ensure that there is uniform distribution of activities and that there is equitable growth withing the city's numerous sub sections. Also these builders claim incentives like cheap electricity and water from the civic authorities for commercial projects.

India has none or non existent zoning rules, you can mix educational, shopping, recreation, residential, commercial and industrial units in any city block without any awareness of consequences. Does this mean that zoning only for demarcating and industrial land. Why should a builder that owns a piece of land intended for commercial use - that can generate thousands of jobs and provide nearby residents place to shop, be allowed to switch to residential plans. Such haphazard plans not only lead to uneven development, it gives rise to unnecessary skewing of prices.

The same article also quotes

"Inventory days in the two cities have fallen back to early 2008 levels or better. However, the overhang in Bangalore, Chennai, Gurgaon and Hyderabad remains significant with at least 15 months of inventory in the pipeline," Goldman analysts Vishnu Gopal and Aditya Soman wrote.

Well, if GSachs is right, then I don't see how the over supply is going to be filled at current rates. In cities like Pune, there have been lot of shady dealings where builders have given huge discounts but have prolonged delivery of the house. This very similar to the years 1997-2000 where rates were decreasing but not collapsing.

On a Lighter note with the swine flu scare, I am hoping the rush of people to the city will at least pause :) and open some window of opportunity. :) FYI I genuinely think Pune will bottom post Diwali - at least in suburbs.

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Six reasons why real estate is a good investment

Times of India, Bangalore trumpetting the cause of the builders. The article is right next to an advertisement from Credai - Karnataka (The builders lobby) which is touting a property mela on the 15th and 16th of August at the Lalit Ashok Hotel. Can someone from Bangalore visit and give us a real report of the ground situation. I'm tired of these soft marketing articles from the Times of India. They are as one-sided as a the coin from Sholay.

This is a good time for investors to buy property as part of a portfolio, says Kavita Sriram
Leading a life of luxury on borrowed money may not always be the right thing to do. How prudent would it be to make an exception on home loans? Should you buy your dream house or invest in some piece of land? Is it time to invest in real estate?

Stability
Real estate is less volatile than stocks. While real estate may be less liquid, and you may have to wait indefinitely before a buyer agrees to purchase your property for the price you seek, the prices are not as volatile as the stock markets. The transition towards a correction or boom takes place gradually, giving ample time for investors to read the transition and safeguard their positions.

Price correction
The economic slowdown had an impact on this sector. The rates have come down over the past few months. Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to invest in real estate when a price correction is taking place rather than in a heated market?
People with a large disposable income can explore investing in real estate for diversification of their assets. Lowering home loan interest rates and lower property prices makes it an opportunity hard to resist.

Good in recession
Some investments are considered safe in times of recession like precious metals and foreign currencies. In this list of investments that are popular during times of financial uncertainty, real estate can be included. Focus on achieving positive monthly cash flows rather than immediate appreciation. Cash flow refers to the amount of cash coming in relative to the amount going out.

Hedge against inflation
Real estate and gold are considered a hedge against forces of inflation. Inflation has led to the rupee value depreciating and property prices travelling upwards. Property investments are typically held over a long term.

Tax benefits
Home loan borrowers are eligible for tax deductions on their interest and principal repayments subject to a certain limit. Further, you can use the rental income from the property to make a portion of the EMI repayments.

Good returns in long term
Investments in property has always proved to be stable and yielded good returns over the long term. With lesser risk and probability of higher returns, this is a much favoured investment option.
Stimulus packages announced by the government are expected to show good results and bolster the economy. Cement, a key construction material, has indicated a growth of 12 percent in May. This is enough indicator of vigorous economic activity.
Borrow as little as possible and consider investing in property.

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Underwater Mortgages Reach Epidemic Levels

Heard on the radio today. Caller bought a house in Merced, CA for 300k in 2005, now the house is worth 150k. Multiply this situation for all purchases made in 2005 in Merced. Isn't everyone who bought a house in merced in the last 4 years under water ? When the loan goes into foreclosure the caller loses all the equity he has paid up to the bank and the interest payments for sure. All housing loans are structured to pay of the interest first so the principal payment to the house is negligible.

Now assuming an area like Cupertino, CA which hasnt' seen such a drop, maybe 10%. By definition if the owner's equity portion on the house in the first few years is negligible so without doubt this buyer is under water too. By this metric all housing transactions made in the past 4 years should leave their owners under water. Houses prices have dropped to levels more then the outstanding loan amount because of negligible payments made towards the principal.

Lets random sample a house in Santa Clara, CA using Zillow in one of the sought of areas by Indians and Chinese first generation immigrants.

06/19/2009: $660,000

03/14/2001: $650,000

4% closing costs of $650k = $26,000

Total cost (2001) = $676,000

Downpayment ~10% = 76,000

Total Loan ~90% = 60,0000

Total interest paid at 5.4 % till date = 243,311.60

Total principal paid till date thru monthy payments = 80,000

Property taxes = 8,000 x 8 = ~64,000

Income Tax Interest deduction in taxes at 30% = -80,000

House maintainence cost 3,000 x 8 = 24,000

Total equity in the house = 76k + 80k = 156k

Total cost of ownership = 243k + 64k + 24k = 331k

Outstanding loan =520k

Total Loss = 660 -(520k + 331k)  + 80k(IT deduction) = -111k

Total Loss for owner over 8 years = ~$111,000

Lets assume owner had rented the place for 2k a month as an average over 8 years = 2 x 12 x 8 = $ 192k total

Assume the owner saved the difference between mortgage and the rent (3.3k -2k) = 1.3 x12 x 8 = $125k

Total savings in the bank of renter  = downpayment + difference = 76 + 124k = 200k

Assuming an average return of 3% over 8 years of 200k, yielding simple interest = 48k

Total savings with renter in the bank = ~248,000

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/charts/19597851_zpid,1year_chartDuration/

24x7 Wallst reports

Underwater mortgages hurt home sales and increase delinquencies and foreclosures.

People who have to pay their mortgage holder to sell their homes are less likely to be sellers. A home sold for $200,000 when it has a $250,000 mortgage is a home that the owner may not be able to afford to sell.

People living in homes with monthly mortgage payment that stretch their abilities to cover their living costs may stay in homes that they believe have a lot of equity and where a sale will eventually bring them a profit. That hope for a bonanza may encourage them to go through the agony of making large payments. People who have no hope of making money on their homes are more likely to be willing to abandon them or be kicked out.

Both of these trends make it more likely that the housing sales pace will continue to be slow and property values will not recover.

Real estate research firm Zillow says that 23% of mortgages are now underwater. The company adds that the number could be 30% a year from now.

One of the major reasons for the trouble is that home values fell 12.1% year-over-year in Q2 to a Zillow Home Value Index of $186,500, resulting in a total 22.3% drop in value since the market peaked in mid-2006. Twenty-two percent of all transactions in June were foreclosures, a possible sign that people are not willing to fight until the end to save their houses.

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Investors may have lost one-third investment in real estate

If Deepak Parekh is right investors have lost close to $8 billion dollars. There are numerous purchases made in the Bandra Kurla complex area which will end up as null and void with the buyer forfeiting on the token amount. Jet Airways is a good example where they don't have the cash to pay up 825 crores for the land which could now be worth 600 crores, a drop of 225 crores.  A huge bubble in QIP/HNI/AIM/Hedge fund real estate speculation has ended with a thud. Hirco.L is quoting down 70% from peak. How the mighty have fallen. 

DNAIndia reports

Mumbai: "Investors have pumped in $25 billion into the Indian real estate market over the last three years but with land values having gone down they could have lost a third of the value of their investment,"said Deepak Parekh,chairman,HDFC, in a letter to shareholders.

Parekh said that the $25 billion are invested through IPOs, QIPs (qualified institutional placements), AIM listing (alternate investment market) and foreign direct investment. A large part of these funds were used for buying land at exorbitant prices.

"With land values having come down, my estimate is that investors could have lost a third of the value of their investment," he said. Advocating caution, Parekh said investors in real estate have to be more discerning. They should be more realistic on valuation expectations and not throw caution to the wind, he said. He also criticised the recent trend where housing loans are offered at attractive interest rates in initial years.

"We are seeing some variations of teaser type housing loans being offered. The lure of low interest rate at the start of taking a housing loan is enticing. But are customers being made aware of future implications," he asked.

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Its Official: Property rates in Pune have started to fall

National Housing Bank is the Apex Institution for Housing Finance in India. It is wholly owned by the Reserve Bank of India.
It maintains an index of real estate prices from all over the country.

Look at the data and charts for Pune: property rates have started to fall!

http://nhb.org.in/Residex/PUNEres.php

You can check the trends in 15 cities across India.

This is as official as it can get!

This just confirms our observations and conclusions that the real estate bubble in India is going to burst.

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On offer in Chennai: Get new flats for old

TOI reports

CHENNAI: It’s commonplace to exchange old utensils, gold jewellery or cars for new. But ever heard of a builder coming up with an exchange offer 

that translates into: ‘You take my new flat; instead, I will buy your old one’? 

In what could well turn out to be a trendsetter, Chennai-based L&T Arun Excello Realty — a joint venture between an L&T subsidiary and a local real estate group — has offered an apartment exchange scheme exclusively to senior citizens. For them, the builder has reserved the ground and first floors of Estancia, an integrated township being promoted 18 km from the Chennai airport on the Madurai route. 

They have also tied up with international realty consultant Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM) to guide elderly customers through the nitty-gritty of the transaction, including evaluating the worth of their old apartments. It is also the first time in Chennai that senior-citizen-friendly flats are being launched within an integrated township. Two other builders had recently launched such apartments in the city. 

Detailing the concept, P Suresh, MD, L&T Arun Excello Realty, said, “Senior citizens quite often feel out of place in the din of city life. They would have put up with hardships for decades, for the sake of their children’s education. In retired life, instead of living alone, feeling insecure and coping with daily challenges in managing the household, we invite them to our gated community that provides a secure environment. They will not be neglected or left alone, but will form part of a community, including children. We also offer to organise even the housekeeping.”

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