Saturday, 27 February 2010

The Budget - Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde

The Finance Minister of India seem to have mastered the fine art of writing suspense thrillers, only here we know who is to blame. Giving direct IT tax breaks and taking it back using indirect forms like service tax, excise tax, petrol tax is pulling wool over the eyes of the millions of middle class Indians. With farmers he can write off loans, with this stupid NREGA scheme he pump thousands of crores into rural India without accountability, but when it comes to the middle class he has magically suckered it into believing that he is doing them a favor.

The news media is in the cahoots of the Congress government and is unable to make unbiased assessment of the budget. The stupid corporate CEO's don't care since they know they will pass the tax to the consumer, and the stupid consumer is happy to watch Tendulkar and SRK heroics instead of seeing that he is being robbed in broad daylight.

Consumer inflation is running at 18% which will spike by another 5% due to hikes in duties and petrol. How does a 10% reduction in income taxes help you when there is a 25% increase the cost of living ? This is the most regressive budget I've seen as the money supply with the consumer will decrease due to record inflation.

And to add icing to the cake, the Finance Minister will eliminate whatever peanuts can be deducted off the taxes once he implements the uniform tax code in 2011. That will roll back the tax cuts for the middle class to zero thereby causing a 50% drop in savings over 2 years with this rampant 25% inflation Y-O-Y. For government employees who had just begun to see the benefits of the sixth pay commission, you will soon see all the extra cash vanish at a record rate thereby negating the impact of any hike.

Add to this the interest rate hikes for floating rate home loans, and we have a case where the Indian savings rate will now be competing with the Americans to see who is the lowest of the two.

In summary the Finance minister has magically created money by lowering interest rates and the sixth pay commission salary hikes and now has taken that same money away by higher taxes and record inflation. To combat inflation he will raise interest rates, thereby siphoning off more money from the borrower, however inflation wont reduce as he has increased indirect taxes on the economy. This is truly the case of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, or a split personality like Dr Jekly and Mr Hyde.

On one had we have Obama fighting for the American middle class with tax cuts, increased unemployment benefit spending, curbs on foreign visas, speaking tough to China to revalue its Yuan and trying hard to get health care for a vast majority of uninsured, and on the other had we have the 3 idiots who are ready to bite the middle-class hand which has been feeding it over the past 40 years.

A finance minister is known by how well he manages inflation, interest rates and taxes. With Mr Mukerjee (Manmohan and Sonia included) this will be year which they will be remembered for and that too not very fondly.

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