Monday, 24 January 2011

Can we call it a peak now?

As we read about Spain's woes (this is Spain we are talking about, not Ireland or Greece), one realizes it was primarily caused the foreign investment that poured into Spanish real estate boom through the Cajas (local co-operative banks). The Government is actively "announcing" cleanups and merging Cajas. Yes, a once mighty economy can be brought to its knees by such foolishness.


The story in India is eerily similar.


Indian real estate attracted $2.8b in FDI last year.


As per industry experts, overseas property sales account for 30 per cent of Indian real estate sector’s total global sales, of which, 40 per cent are accounted by the UAE-based Indians.


Ooh - is that because Indian real estate will never go down? Unlike the Dubai real estate? :) /s.


Of course FDI will fee as quickly as it comes in as well. In January, in 12 trading sessions, foreign investors have pulled a massive 1 billion dollars out of the Indian market.


There's been a significant selloff since the start of 2011, as investors flee over inflation fears.


With food inflation at more than 18%, it is just a matter of time before the Reserve Bank does the one thing it does which is to push the interest rates high - very high.


So it is safe to call peak now?

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