Dubai World Crisis Vs US Housing Crisis - Layman's Analysis

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I think this is the following layman's assessment

US Crisis Model -

1) Government Pushes Expansion of Housing as it sits on huge surplus/potential surplus. Keeps interest rates low for borrowers

2) Lenders fresh with bulk funds from investors and low interests push both consumers and constructors. (initially follow all regulations) Steady growth in prices of property

3) Once responsible borrowers have bought houses/property - Greedy Investors, Greedier Realtors push prices higher - and entice borrowers with poor credit history to buy houses. Investments Banks bet on these borrowers defaulting through Credit Default Swaps and Collateralize Debt obligations

4) At the tip of the bubble (mid 2006), the frenzy of buying starts faltering with the irresponsible borrowers (who bought in the 90s) start defaulting. As homeowner defaults increase, demand slumps due to lack of growth in economy, flood of cheap foreclosures in the market push down prices.

5) Even good houses and responsible borrowers start feeling pain as bad borrowers brought down all real estate asset prices. (with many of them also either forsaking the house or short selling for a loss)
- this results in IBs and insurance cos to forcefully pay the CDS and CDO - making them insolvent.- BAIL OUT BAIL OUT


BOTTOM LINE for US market
Borrowers (end users who bought houses) started defaulting because they owed banks more money than the value of the house.


Dubai Crisis Model -

1) Government of Dubai entity/organizations plan grandiose development for the city.
They evaluate the scope and possible returns and borrow money from investors to construct projects via contractors. The entity backs it up saying never decreasing oil prices will make Dubai a productive hub. So the valuation of property is based on increasing oil prices.
Update1 - Someone corrected me saying Dubai does not have oil, but the other emirates do! So Dubai just projected its potential based on the neighbors riches :)

2) Initially some sales of these projects pick up due to marketing etc. But once the credit crunch hits western world potential buyers start declining. Oil prices tumble to a point where Dubai can no longer fund projects with oil money (which it does not have - but was promised by neighboring emirates), so it steps up borrowing hoping for recovery.

3) With no buyers, and stagnant prices, there is no scope of paying back the borrowed investment money to the lenders by the Dubai world, etc entity. Dubai asks for 6 months moratorium on payments.
Companies are worried that even after 6 months, the huge amount of unoccupied real estate in Dubai will simply remain in present stagnant state. (Dubai govt/Dubai World cannot reduce prices as it will cause a downward spiral just like USA and cause present occupiers to forsake their places as nearby locations will become dirt cheap - at the same time, tight money supply is not bringing in new investors to buy Dubai property at current prices)

4) Renegotiation of Debt fails - and the Entity cries default ...


BOTTOMLINE - Dubai
In this type of crisis, there is no end user or home occupier/office lessee involved - the Debt of the constructing entity itself causes the default mess.

There are fears that Malaysia, Shanghai and of course Mumbai are having exact same models of construction - where some entity entices investors and promises huge returns and later finds out no one wants to buy whatever was built.

I am not an expert at all this but is my assessment correct?
Where is India's bubble position wrt these 2 scenarios - all thoughts appreciated

- Outcomes -
1. Global Commercial Real Estate crash - Ruled out - Emerging market Commercial Crash ??
2. Gulf Government Bailout on Oil Bonds - Abu Dhabi is unwilling as the UAE is not really United :P
3. Collapse in oil prices due to surplus from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran - Keep checking oil futures
4. Definite yes - cost of insuring against default by High debt nations like Ireland, Bulgaria, Greece, skyrockets

दुबई = डूब-गई

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Buy your house - next year!!!

Since when did we start seeing these headlines. Now the original prophecy laid out in my original postings of the collapse of WAMU, Wachovia has come true, what do we expect next.
Based on today's 777 point drop in the DOW, I would expect the Sensex to hit 8000 fairly soon. We are at 12500 and the journey to 8000 should be swift and painless. Mumbai as a property market is dead. I think prices can easily drop 50% and rentals down 60-70%. Any apt which is quoting over 5k per sq/ft is not viable. If the developers have paid over 5k as their acquisition cost, they are the sub-prime of India. They have borrowed funds to acquire sub-prime assets and they will have to pay the price. Nobody in the right mind has 1cr to buy an apt in Mumbai, let alone other cities. I think the paradigm "Real estate never goes down in Mumbai" is now dead. Real estate has collapsed under the weight of the Sub-prime and the flow of cheap money, funded by unscruplous bankers. All the I-Bankers buying properties of 4-12 crores better find ways to find their purchases. The party is over, and the drunks are straggeling to get home. The Rahejas and the Hirnandani's now have to go back to the common people who were priced out of the purchase and if they don't drop prices, they can keep their apartments for themselves and their relatives or friends. With the implosion of the US banks, credit is weak. Amercians with retirement plans funded over the past 20 years are now bailing out to the safety of money market funds. How does Mumbai survive this huge gigantic iceberg. The real estate buildings spring up all over Mumbai will collapse like the Titantic and will remain unfinished if they are not sold at below market rates. Witht he media also harping on the slowdown, expect everyone except the diehard optimist, like Realtly rider and Ashish to keep buying properties and these folks deserve to have their money parted for a fool and his money will soon be parted. For the rest, lets keep watching the party unwind. It was a great run and an even greater drop. Gravity rules.
The time for buying in projects breaking ground or just starting has ended. With the collapse of credit, there is no way to know if projects will be completed and bills paid. This happened in the 80's where there were many unfinished buildings since the developer ran out of money. Whenever the time comes to buy, sometime next year and prices have fallen steeply, it is best to buy an property which is ready or almost ready. Project execution risk has too be taken out of the equation. With so many developers folding only the biggest and ones with deep pockets will survive. Everyone else will be road kill. As of now in terms of banks, there are only 4 major banks left in the US, Bank of Amercia, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup. Citigroup had to be bailed out by the Arabs, so what is the guarantee that a company like ABC Constructions will survive in a fastly deteriorating market

DNA India reports.
A survey of brokers shows that enquiries to buy homes have fallen, with Mumbai registering a 90% drop. Brokers expect prices to drop soon.

The word is out on the streets. About 60 per cent of brokers expect prices in the Mumbai island city and up to Borivili to come down in the next year. Pranay Vakil, chairman of Knight Frank, global property, says he is also concerned about the volumes, which currently are 10 per cent of the sales recorded last year in Mumbai alone. “Prices are a function of demand and supply. But if volumes do not sustain, the problem will be greater and will bring the industry to a halt. Currently, only long term investors who have seen the ups and downs in the market are holding on.”

According to a pan-India survey of local brokers on the residential property market carried out by Edelweiss, global research analysts, almost 80 per cent of brokers across India have witnessed a reduction in enquiries over the past month and about 90 per cent of brokers in Mumbai have seen a drop in transactions over the past one month.

Hundred brokers in 20 micro-markets like Bandra-Borivili, Mulund-Thane, Gurgaon, Noida, Whitefield-Marathalli, Annanagar in the cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai were polled.

According to Vakil, in order to increase volumes, developers will now cut down on quality in big projects. “In a total of 10 buildings, two will maintain high quality at a high rate, but in two he might offer low quality tiling in bathrooms and use it as an excuse to reduce his prices,” he says.

According to property experts, volume is driven by sentiment. If a buyer is sure of his ability to retain a job — essential to maintain a bank loan — he will go ahead and borrow money to buy a flat. “The situation is rather flexible. Apart from high property prices, high interest rates have cast a big question on the affordability of a flat purchaser these days,” said an equity analyst.

That the lack of demand and growing liquidity crises has developers worried was obvious at an informal meeting of 35-odd developers at a suburban five-star in Mumbai recently. With banks like Bank of Baroda, Bank of India recently announcing that they will not lend money against property, developers are worried about how to source funds for their projects. “The tightening money market has made IPOs redundant.

Venture capital funds have stopped lending and developers do not want to go to money lenders because of high interest rates of about 25 to 30 per cent. So, the only option is to either start selling faster by reducing rates (something they do not want to do) or curtail production which many of them have already started doing,” said a property consultant with a global real estate major.
According to Anuj Puri, managing director of Jones Lang Lasalle Meghraj, a global real estate firm, “Developers will have to reduce their prices if they have to beef up their quantum. I believe there is still a lot of depth in the market but at the right price. The faster the developers understand it, the better it will be for all concerned.”

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Unitech receives Rs 740 cr from Lehman

Lehman has stuck a sweet deal for themselves with this low valuation for development on 97 acres. Unitech has/will pay off the slum dwellers under the SRA scheme with all their black money and will get an FSI of 2.5 . Lehman will bring in the brand name and the bear half the construction cost and receive a 50% stake. With 18 million sq/ft under development with an average price of 15000 per sq/ft ($350 per sq/ft roughly) that translates to a sale price of $6B dollars with $3B for Lehman. With Lehman's cost price being $170M , the profits can be staggering. I wouldn't be suprised if they setup their HQ in this complex and so do other Wall Street and European/Asian firms. This could be the Wall St of Dalal Street.

Fantastic deal here for Lehman. Here is the wikimapia location of the SRA(Look for Dawri Nagar), Right on the intersection of Nehru road and the Western Express highway. Excellent location for business as Bandra Kurla complex (BKC) is 10 mins away southbound, and the domestic airport 10 mins driving north. If my guess is right, major slums on the opposite side of the freeway too will become prime property.


DNA link here .
MUMBAI: Unitech Ltd on Thursday said it has received Rs 740 crore from global investment bank Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners for a 50 per cent stake in the country's second largest realty firm's project here.

"On satisfactory completion of all the conditions under the transaction documents, Unitech Ltd on Thursday received subscription amount of Rs 740 crore," the realty major said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners have been allotted 50 per cent stake in the initial phase of a master-planned project on the Western Expressway of Mumbai.

The construction cost for the initial phase would be borne by Lehman Brothers Real Estate and the Western Expressway JV, a joint venture of Unitech Ltd and its local partners, the filing added.

The initial phase entails development of one million square feet of office space out of the total developable area of around 18 million square feet.

Lehman Brothers' Real Estate group is a capital and advisory services provider to the real estate firms.

The group has presence in all of the major international markets, with investment bankers in New York, Los Angeles, London, Milan, Tokyo and Hong Kong.

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