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Showing posts with label dubai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dubai. Show all posts

Monday, 7 December 2009

Emaar shares plunge as UAE markets tumble

Posted on 09:59 by Unknown
Looks like all the High net investors (HNI's) investors are going to soon be HNS (High net suckers). Emaar tried hard to raise funds in early 2008 but due to the US market crash, the Indian market went soft. Now the sand shifted under their own feet. I wonder how Indian regulators like SEBI and all the Indian stock brokering underwriters didn't flinch a bit examining the Emaar books. It goes to show rigged the Indian stock market is. The Reliance power script is still trading at 145, far from the peak it reached from the IPO. Investors in India have to be super careful. Trust no one should be the Ekam Sat when it comes to Indian markets. As far as Shah Rukh goes, he can entertain the Sheiks this new year and make up for his losses in the Dubai market. What happens to the poor suckers who lost their shirt and cannot shake a leg ?


Emaar shares plunge as UAE markets tumble AFP/File – A view of Dubai's Marina area shows high-rise buildings being built by Emaar. Shares in Dubai's …


by W.G. Dunlop W.g. Dunlop – 2 hrs 33 mins ago

DUBAI (AFP) – Shares in Dubai's giant property developer Emaar dropped the maximum-allowed 10 percent on Monday as stocks in the United Arab Emirates took a fresh tumble over Dubai's debt woes.

The Dubai exchange slumped 5.84 percent and Abu Dhabi's market dropped 1.68 percent, after both on Sunday had recovered some of the heavy losses they sustained last week.

Emaar, developer of the world's tallest building, Burj Dubai, led the downward charge on the Dubai Financial Market. Emaar shares dropped the maximum 10 percent.

The company's shares had closed 3.55 percent up on Sunday, following heavy losses last week.

By its close the DFM had settled at 1,744.83 points, a day after a rise of 1.18 percent, to 1,853.13 points.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange dropped to 2,628.24 points at the close of trading on Monday, a day after having closed up a hefty 3.89 percent at 2,673.12 points.

Wadah Taha, chief investment officer at the Dubai-based Zarooni Group, attributed the continued troubles in the two exchanges to the lack of information on developments regarding the debt-laden Dubai World conglomerate.

"I think the fear is still there, the fear which affects the market sentiment and investor psychology," Taha said.

"The main fear today is due to the meeting between Nakheel and its creditors," he said. Nakheel, which is part of Dubai World, is reportedly to meet with its creditors this week to discuss rescheduling its debts.

There is also a lack of clarity regarding which banks and companies are exposed to Dubai World, Taha said.

"The picture needs to be more clear, more transparency is required," he said. "The volatility of both markets will remain high unless we deal with the issue of transparency."

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's exchange fell slightly on Monday, closing down 0.99 percent. Its TASI index closed 0.33 percent up on Sunday at 6,309.05 points, but fell to 6,246.50 points by its close on Monday.

The Kuwaiti stock market was likewise down, closing 0.79-percent lower, at 6,678.9 points, while Bahrain's small exchange dropped slightly, closing at minus 0.07 percent.

Bucking the trend, Qatar and Oman's stock markets were up on Monday.

Qatar's exchange rose 1.06 percent, closing at 7,132.26 points, while Oman's market went up 0.32 percent, to close at 6,302.170 points.

Both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets suffered heavy losses last week over Dubai's debt troubles. The Dubai index plunged 12.5 percent over a two-day trading period, while Abu Dhabi's slumped 11.6 percent.

The sharp falls came after Dubai on November 25 requested a freeze of payments on the debt of its largest conglomerate, Dubai World, which is liable for 59 billion dollars.

The request raised fears of a debt default by Dubai and sent jitters through global financial markets. The emirate's debts are estimated to total at least 80 billion dollars, with some estimates as high as 120 billion dollars.

On Monday, Dubai department of finance head Abdulrahman al-Saleh said Dubai World could sell some of its assets in the United Arab Emirates and abroad to strengthen its financial situation.

"The sale of assets is a normal measure to strengthen the group's financial situation in these circumstances," Saleh said in an interview with Al-Jazeera television.

He also reiterated the Dubai government does not guarantee Dubai World's debts, but said the "Dubai Financial Support Fund," which he chairs, "has helped companies affected by the financial crisis, including Dubai World."
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Posted in dubai, housing crash | No comments

Saturday, 28 November 2009

Dubai World Crisis Vs US Housing Crisis - Layman's Analysis

Posted on 13:27 by Unknown













(Image courtesy - Wikimedia foundation )

I think this is the following layman's assessment

US Crisis Model -

1) Government Pushes Expansion of Housing as it sits on huge surplus/potential surplus. Keeps interest rates low for borrowers

2) Lenders fresh with bulk funds from investors and low interests push both consumers and constructors. (initially follow all regulations) Steady growth in prices of property

3) Once responsible borrowers have bought houses/property - Greedy Investors, Greedier Realtors push prices higher - and entice borrowers with poor credit history to buy houses. Investments Banks bet on these borrowers defaulting through Credit Default Swaps and Collateralize Debt obligations

4) At the tip of the bubble (mid 2006), the frenzy of buying starts faltering with the irresponsible borrowers (who bought in the 90s) start defaulting. As homeowner defaults increase, demand slumps due to lack of growth in economy, flood of cheap foreclosures in the market push down prices.

5) Even good houses and responsible borrowers start feeling pain as bad borrowers brought down all real estate asset prices. (with many of them also either forsaking the house or short selling for a loss)
- this results in IBs and insurance cos to forcefully pay the CDS and CDO - making them insolvent.- BAIL OUT BAIL OUT


BOTTOM LINE for US market
Borrowers (end users who bought houses) started defaulting because they owed banks more money than the value of the house.


Dubai Crisis Model -

1) Government of Dubai entity/organizations plan grandiose development for the city.
They evaluate the scope and possible returns and borrow money from investors to construct projects via contractors. The entity backs it up saying never decreasing oil prices will make Dubai a productive hub. So the valuation of property is based on increasing oil prices.
Update1 - Someone corrected me saying Dubai does not have oil, but the other emirates do! So Dubai just projected its potential based on the neighbors riches :)

2) Initially some sales of these projects pick up due to marketing etc. But once the credit crunch hits western world potential buyers start declining. Oil prices tumble to a point where Dubai can no longer fund projects with oil money (which it does not have - but was promised by neighboring emirates), so it steps up borrowing hoping for recovery.

3) With no buyers, and stagnant prices, there is no scope of paying back the borrowed investment money to the lenders by the Dubai world, etc entity. Dubai asks for 6 months moratorium on payments.
Companies are worried that even after 6 months, the huge amount of unoccupied real estate in Dubai will simply remain in present stagnant state. (Dubai govt/Dubai World cannot reduce prices as it will cause a downward spiral just like USA and cause present occupiers to forsake their places as nearby locations will become dirt cheap - at the same time, tight money supply is not bringing in new investors to buy Dubai property at current prices)

4) Renegotiation of Debt fails - and the Entity cries default ...


BOTTOMLINE - Dubai
In this type of crisis, there is no end user or home occupier/office lessee involved - the Debt of the constructing entity itself causes the default mess.

There are fears that Malaysia, Shanghai and of course Mumbai are having exact same models of construction - where some entity entices investors and promises huge returns and later finds out no one wants to buy whatever was built.

I am not an expert at all this but is my assessment correct?
Where is India's bubble position wrt these 2 scenarios - all thoughts appreciated

- Outcomes -
1. Global Commercial Real Estate crash - Ruled out - Emerging market Commercial Crash ??
2. Gulf Government Bailout on Oil Bonds - Abu Dhabi is unwilling as the UAE is not really United :P
3. Collapse in oil prices due to surplus from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran - Keep checking oil futures
4. Definite yes - cost of insuring against default by High debt nations like Ireland, Bulgaria, Greece, skyrockets

दुबई = डूब-गई
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Posted in credit infusion, dubai, housing crash, inflation, Lehman, subprime, USA | No comments

Friday, 27 November 2009

Dubai Crisis Hitting Indian Real Estate

Posted on 18:07 by Unknown
Dubai the much touted "financial" and "commercial" destination has become a desert bust.

MSM is trying to hide the crisis but they are not going to get away ... Will India's Housing Bubble should follow similar traits as what happened in Dubai?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfe89m8qqoI&feature=player_embedded

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/Dubai-Crisis-Caught-in-deserted-storm/articleshow/5277408.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/Dalal-Street-likely-to-sail-through-the-Dubai-crisis/articleshow/5277181.cms

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8RD8uqjoLCQ&pos=2

http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/udayans-comments/indian-mkts-rattleddubai-default-impact_427590.html
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Posted in credit infusion, default, dubai, recession | No comments

Tuesday, 7 October 2008

Shah Rukh glamor doomed in the Gulf

Posted on 11:34 by Unknown
Shah Rukh Khan or SRK needs to start reading this blog :). Sabbal Seshu and Ashish will get him black money rich clients for his high end gulf properties. Alas Mr SRK you might be a good businessman with Knight Riders and IPL, however this one is destined to end up 'deserted'.

Bollywood Star Hopes Glamour Will Rub Off on Gulf Properties

By Ayesha Daya
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shah Rukh Khan, the star of Bollywood hits such as ``Om Shanti Om'' and ``Chak De India,'' hopes his glamour will rub off on the real-estate fortunes of a little-known Gulf emirate.

Khan will help Ras Al Khaimah, a rocky outcrop of 168 square kilometers (65 square miles) and 250,000 people, to sell an 8 billion-dirham ($2.2 billion) beachfront development that will include an underwater disco and lounge. He presented the project, called Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard, in Dubai on Oct 5.

``I'm a believer in a place where things grow fast,'' Khan, who has visited Ras Al Khaimah only once, said in an interview after the briefing. Khan, 42, has endorsed products ranging from PepsiCo Inc. soft drinks to Hyundai Motor Co. cars.

Ras Al Khaimah, the most northerly of the seven sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates, aims to emulate Dubai, whose booming property market has attracted endorsements from celebrities including Brad Pitt and Boris Becker. The developer, TSA Group, is trying to lure foreign investors including Khan's fans from the Indian diaspora.

As oil and gas reserves dwindle, the emirate hopes tourism will generate independent sources of income and supplement contributions from hydrocarbon-rich Abu Dhabi that provide basic infrastructure, power and public services.

The Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard will be built on the man-made Dana Island that is being developed by the government's real estate unit Rakeen. The Boulevard will comprise townhouses and ten towers spread across an area of 600,000 square feet and is due to be completed in 2012.

Design Ideas

Khan has offered design ideas for the project, such as a glass gate at the entrance and big screens on the beach where people can watch movies, besides the underwater attractions.

``For me, this is the first step to have the freedom to express myself in stone,'' said Khan, who isn't planning any other developments. The Mumbai-based actor will start filming ``My Name is Khan'' on Dec. 15.

Khan said the project won't be hampered by a slump in the local real estate market brought on by the global financial crisis and the prospect of a worldwide recession. ``This is not the first time I'm experiencing recessions,'' the actor said, adding that the project won't be ready for another five years.

In Dubai, Brad Pitt is helping to design an 800-room hotel and resort with Zabeel Properties, while towers have been named after former Wimbledon tennis champion Boris Becker and ex-Formula One driver Michael Schumacher.

Dubai's other projects include a 1-kilometer-tall tower and surrounding developments that will cost about $40 billion, a 300- island project in the shape of continents called The World, and the world's biggest mall.

Dubai Real Estate

Home prices in Dubai, the second-biggest of the country's emirates after Abu Dhabi, are likely to remain little-changed until 2010 after five years of gains, Colliers CRE Plc said in a report Oct. 5. Emaar Properties PJSC, the Middle East's biggest publicly traded real-estate company, lost the most since 2000 on Oct. 5 on concern that the U.S. bank bailout won't prevent the global credit crisis from reaching Dubai.

``There is very little to go on with regards to the fundamentals behind the Ras Al Khaimah market,'' said Robert McKinnon, managing director of equity research at Al Mal Capital PSC. ``But I do expect it would correct along with the rest of the U.A.E.'' if this happens.
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Posted in bollywood, dubai, gulf, srk | No comments
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