Lehman fall may deepen Indian realtors' credit woes

Enuff said

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy is likely to cost Indian real estate dear. It may impact the financial major’s existing investments worth $500 million in realty firms, including DLF and Unitech, besides drying up another $500-million worth of potential investment which was expected to flow into Unitech’s Mumbai projects.

The news of Lehman’s collapse brought the BSE realty index down by 7.65% on Monday, while the benchmark Sensex declined 3.35%. Both DLF and Unitech fell 7.5%.

Lehman’s fall signals a deepening of credit crisis for Indian developers, who have lately been battling falling sales, rising cost of construction and tightening credit. It is expected that the US-based firm is likely to go for a fire sale of its assets.

The financial services major was very bullish on India and was among the active investors in Indian real estate. Early this year, it had leased out an office space in Mumbai paying Rs 1 crore per month as rental. This would divert a part of fresh funds seeking to invest in Indian realty.


This is because global fund houses have country-allocations. And as they buyout Lehman’s stake in some of the Indian assets, they will end up diverting some of the fresh funds-in-hand to existing assets rather than investing in new projects.

“Lehman’s departure will impact future cash flows of real estate companies. In a market situation like today’s, it will be all the more difficult for the firms to raise funds,” says Karvy Stock Broking vice-president Ambareesh Baliga.

Lehman invested $200 million in DLF promoter group company DLF Assets last year and bought 50% stake in Unitech’s Mumbai project for $175 million a few months ago. It had also invested $80 million in Bangalore-based SEZ Gandhi City and was likely to hike its share to $300 million.

Lehman’s other investments include a 40% stake in an IT park project of Peninsula Land in Hyderabad for an initial investment of Rs 50 crore. It had also teamed up with Mumbai-based developer HDIL to bid for the redevelopment of Asia’s largest slum Dharavi.

Wherever the developers had received fund, they are safe. But where the funds are yet to come, the developers could get stuck. Some analysts say a distress sale by Lehman will impact the valuation of existing projects.

DLF CFO Ramesh Sanka had earlier told ET that Lehman’s sale of investments in DAL would not impact DAL’s valuation. Unitech MD Sanjay Chandra said that his company had already received funds. So, the company won’t get impacted by Lehman’s bankruptcy.

Some industry executives say that FDI norms of a three-year lock-in period may prevent Lehman from making an immediate sale. But analysts argue that the lock-in period in case of bankruptcy may not hold.

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Real estate developers caught in downturn

DNA has a article on the pithfalls of the use of leverage in the real estate business. Expect rapid unwinding in Mumbai and land prices in developing areas of all cities in Mumbai. The wind below the PE wings have been taken out. With the collapse of Lehman, Fannie, Freedie and impending doom of Washington Mutual and Wachovia, we are in a very deep downturn. I think Mumbai prices will collapse 50% under these circumstances. Antything over 5-6k per sq/ft is not capable of being repaid using a loan based on Indian salaries. so prices have to drop to these levels whether funded by black, white or yellow money. If prices don't drop there will be zero buyers for all expensive properties owned by builders. They can keep it and rent it out for 20-30k a month. If the PE guy comes callingthey better have a good way to repay their debt, maybe by raising money on the black market at 4% a month

Increase in interest rates, private equity players’ demand for assured returns hit realtors, delay project launch
MUMBAI: Increase in interest rates and demand from private equity firms for assured returns have landed a double whammy on realtors: a severe liquidity crunch that’s delaying projects and launches; and, two, narrowed fund-raising avenues.

Till some time back, developers preferred to invest money in one project at a time. So, if a realtor injected Rs 1,000 crore into a project, he would wait for free cash flows to come in before announcing the next project.

But the realty boom of the last two years saw many developers aggressively announcing multiple projects.

As a result, over 1,000 million sq ft was earmarked for development with a fund requirement of Rs 205,400 crore over five years.

Spurring their aggression was the entry of private equity investors, who invested heavily discounting the risks.

When the market slumped this year, PEs turned chary of investing so started demanding assured returns.

For realtors, this meant funds wouldn’t come as easily as they used to.
Pankaj Jaju, head of the real estate practice at Enam Securities, said deferred cash flows are affecting the rate of return on projects.
“And there is more pain in store as capital values are expected to correct across markets and input costs have increased, which would lead to contracted margins of the developers,” Jaju said.
Another action that lead to funds crunch is that developers who had easy access to liquidity started jumping the gun when it came to projects.
In a recent report, Enam elucidated how this happened and who is paying for the sins.

Earlier, if a realtor had two projects in hand —- say A and B —- worth Rs 1,000 crore under development, he would invest the entire amount in the first project, complete it and after getting returns on A, and then invest in B.

With PEs coming in, builders began splitting the Rs 1,000 crore into two equal chunks, investing in both A and B at the same time and expecting PEs to contribute 50% of the net asset value (NAV) of the project (or half of Rs 1,500 crore).
The real estate company having Projects A and B first starts executing Project A by investing Rs 500 crore in a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
The PE investor brings in 50% of the project NAV - Rs 750 crore, into the company, taking the total equity capital to Rs 1,250 crore.
A debt to equity ratio of 1:1 meant the builder is able to raise debt worth Rs 1,250 crore. Thus the total investment in the project becomes Rs 2,500 crore.
With the project cost at Rs 2,000 crore, the company’s estimated free cash flow stands at Rs 500 crore at the end of the first project.
This Rs 500 crore is invested in Project B, which is a bigger project with a bigger project NAV. The same procedure of bringing in a PE investor etc is again followed with Project B. The real estate company thus ends up with an estimated free cash flow of Rs 1,000 crore.

But trouble came when the estimated free cash flow didn’t arrive because construction work started getting delayed, land acquisition became a problem and costs shot up by more than 50% of estimates.
The crunch is affecting realtors who have stretched their balance sheets thus, and did not achieve financial closure for projects.
The exit of investors, who were one of the biggest sources of working capital for realtors, landed another blow.

Realtors therefore sought quicker rotation of capital by putting money into high-earning activities of land banking, which left many a developer in the lurch.
Things have come to such a pass, says the Enam presentation, that developers are pitching projects against each other at lower costs to gain sales volumes and earn much-required cash to resolve working capital issues.
“No heed was paid to real estate cyclicality, slowing demand or aggressive execution,” the report said.

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Battle for Mumbai's skies set to begin

Times of India reports

Mumbai: The skyline of congested areas in Mumbai like Girgaum, Grant Road, Bhuleshwar Nagpada and Parel could soon be filled with thousands of skyscrapers sprouting from every nook and corner, thanks to Thursday’s supreme court ruling.
The order comes as a major bonanza for builders because it once again allows them virtually unlimited floor space index (FSI) for redeveloping old, mainly pre-1940 cessed buildings in the island city. In 2005, the Bombay high court, which had admitted a PIL filed by some prominent Mumbaikars, had restricted this use of unlimited FSI on the grounds that it was leading to haphazard and unabated construction activity. The high court had observed that this rule had led to ‘subversion of urban planning’.
“Although the supreme court ruling will facilitate redevelopment of old and dilapidated cessed buildings, it will put pressure on civic infrastructure,” said a worried municipal commissioner Jairaj Phatak. However, he was confident that the island city will be able to cope up with this construction spree if the redevelopment is carried out in a proper manner.
When old buildings are torn down and rebuilt into towers, the space between two skyscrapers could be as little as five feet or even less. Mumbai’s development control rule 33 (7), which pertains to the redevelopment of cessed properties, gives sweeping powers to the municipal commissioner to relax the mandatory open spaces surrounding a building to five feet.
In congested Girgaum, opposite the Harkisondas hospital, a 38-storey tower is virtually kissing another 22-storey high rise next to it. In Nana Chowk, a pencil thin skyscraper has cropped up almost touching the adjacent building.
Over the past decade, many such residential towers as high as 30-40 floors have started springing up in areas like Girgaum, Nana Chowk and Grant Road where the civic infrastructure is already in poor shape. In fact, Mumbai’s tallest residential building, the 45-storey Shreepati Arcade at Nana Chowk, was redeveloped under rule 33 (7).
On Thursday, property redeveloper Pujit Agarwal of Orbit Corporation was ecstatic as several hundred redevelopment projects were in a limbo ever since the PIL was filed in 2004. “The Supreme court judgment has come as a relief for the entire island city, especially the two million tenants living in such buildings. Over the past eight years, we have all undergone a learning curve,” he said.
Rajesh Vardhan of Vardhaman Developers said the judgment has come at a time when several dilapidated buildings were crumbling, leading to loss of life. “Hopefully, today’s ruling will lead to systematic development,” he said.
Agarwal said that henceforth the BMC should ensure it does not condone the compulsory open spaces and in only exceptional cases, should it relax it to five feet. “The state housing authority, MHADA, should carry out due diligence to ensure that the list of tenants is not inflated by any builder in order to get more FSI. Thirdly, developers must be encouraged to go in for cluster redevelopment,” he added.
The Property Redevelopers Association said more than 500 proposals for redevelopment of cessed properties are pending with Mhada and BMC. “The pace of rehabilitation will now increase,” it said.
Four years ago, in a PIL filed by the late J B D’souza, urban planner Shirish Patel and civic activist Cyrus Guzder against the “misuse” of 33 (7), they pointed out how some builders inflated the number of tenants to avail extra FSI.

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The new Zamindars of India - TheRussian mafia

Livemint.com reports on apathy of the Goa government to look into illegal land dealings in Goa.

Mumbai: The Enforcement Directorate, or ED, the agency responsible for investigating economic crime in India, has sought information from the Goa government on all companies that bought properties in the state between 2000 and 2007, as it investigates the role of a suspected Russian land mafia.
The agency suspects that some Indian companies that bought large plots in the state could have acted as fronts for Russian owners acquiring land in violation of the Foreign Exchange Management Act, or Fema, said a top enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The directorate, which has been probing suspicious land transactions, has had little success in tracking such deals.
“Most of these cases are unreported due to the reluctance of state authorities to cooperate with our investigations,” the same official said. “We have asked the Goa government to find out the names of big companies that have bought land for promotion of tourism in Goa.”
Goa chief minister Digambar Kamat declined to comment on the issue in a telephone conversation. He also said a comment through email or fax would take time, citing the state assembly session that’s under way.
Goa, famous for its beaches, tropical biodiversity and a strong Portuguese influence on its culture and architecture, attracts a large number of foreign tourists every year who find it easier to blend in with the diverse local population than in any other Indian state. But parts of Goa have also acquired a reputation as a haven for drug dealers and land mafia.
Last year, CNN-IBN television news channel reported that the Russian land mafia had been throwing out small landholders and farmers, and grabbing prime land in fraudulent deals. Following reports of foreigners buying land in Goa in violation of Fema, the state government handed over details on 21 companies owned by Russian nationals to the directorate and the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI.
According to Ashutosh Limaye, associate director at the property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, increased vigilance over land deals by the police, forest laws and rules relating to coastal regulation zones have stalled land transactions in Goa now.
“The deal makers want to play it safe and are waiting for resolution of the ongoing issues,” he said.”The number of land transactions in Goa has definitely come down as a fallout of the land scam. Many deals, that were at the negotiation stage, have been stalled.”
Still, the “significant decline” in the number of land deals hasn’t led to a sharp fall in prices, which have remained stable, he said.
In May, the directorate issued notices under Fema to the promoters and directors of two companies—True Axis Resorts Pvt. Ltd and Artlibori Resorts Pvt. Ltd, owned by Russian citizens Leonid Beyzer and Valiulin Rashida, respectively, asking them why they should not be penalized. The other directors in True Axis are Pramod B. Walke and Fransico D’Souza, both from Goa.
Beyzer, who still lives in Goa had, in 2005, bought 25,000 sq. m of land, including 19,906 sq. m of prime agricultural land in Morjim, North Goa, for constructing a resort. He was in India on a tourist visa, according to the directorate.
Mint was unable to contact True Axis and Artlibori Resorts because their addresses weren’t readily available.
The directorate also sent notices to directors of another resort firm, Oriental Ambers Pvt. Ltd, only to find later that there was no office at the registered address. It has not been able to trace the local owners of Oriental Ambers either.
According to the enforcement official, under Fema, foreigners can buy land in India if they hold a business visa and have lived in the country for 182 days at a stretch in the previous financial year. Such individuals should also possess documentary evidence of either long-term employment or business or vocational pursuits in India.
Foreigners with business visas can purchase properties in the name of Indian entities registered with the registrar of companies and the local branch of RBI. They can buy land for personal use if they can prove their intention to stay in India for an indefinite period of time. Even then, they are not allowed to buy agricultural and plantation land.
According to the directorate’s investigations, Beyzer founded True Axis and infused capital in the firm as foreign direct investment, or FDI, under the automatic route of RBI available for non-resident Indians. The Indian central bank raised objections later on the source of money.
Under the automatic FDI route, RBI’s prior approval is not required. However, the firm should notify RBI about the transaction within 30 days of inward remittances for clearance.
“We found that True Axis was not using the money for construction of the proposed resort. Now, we have attached the commercial property of True Axis in Morjim and are waiting to hear from the promoters on the show-cause notice,” the same official said.
“We fear that a number of big companies owned by Russians have followed the same route to grab land in Goa,” he added. “The modus operandi of such individuals is to float a company with an Indian partner, who acts as a front to register the firm in Goa. The company then pumps in foreign investment for real estate deals. Once the firm buys the land, it splits from the Indian partner.”
The directorate is investigating more than 400 cases where foreigners from the UK, France and Russia have bought land in Goa under tourist visas.
“Many of them are retired foreigners who are peacefully living in Goa and are harmless, but the real threat is from Russian companies who are illegally acquiring land,” the enforcement official said.
The agency recorded statements of individuals in 100 cases and issued 15 so-called show-cause notices to some of them under Fema last month. According to the directorate, the number of cases of misuse of property laws in Goa can go up to 2,000.

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What is a bubble ?

There are many definitions of the term bubble and bubbling prices of real estate are known to everyone in India. We need to define what is considered a good price for buying property in India. There is the obvious "sour grapes" syndrome which people succumb to when they discuss property prices so an objective analysis is needed on what constitutes fair price for a given property. The guidance value is of some relevance but in Mumbai and other urban cities it has lost its meaning due to the high component of black money. Given the growth of money supply by rising incomes and accessibility of loans we have seen the steep rise in property prices. Some 15 years ago when I joined an IT company in Bangalore I used to get 5,500 rupees a month. That was considered a princely amount and it was more then 2,000 rupees then what my mother earned a school teacher after spending 25+ years. At about the same time in 1993 someone I knew bought a 4000 sq ft plot in Jayanagar for 4 Lakhs which is 100 rs sq/ft. In 2008, Infosys should be paying 25000 to a fresher, A teacher of the same experience will probably at 10k (my guess) but the plot in Jayanagar is now 8000 rs per sq/ft. The point of the story is that land appreciation is something which cannot be predicted, however apartments have a finite value and will not show the same stellar returns.
If an investment is to be made it has to done at a low entry point for maximum return. For those who had the money to buy land in 1993, they can safely plan for their grand kids retirement. For those like me who didn't we can debate.

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Realty slowdown delivers late punch to buyers

Economic times reports on the hard times facing the builders. Speculate and pass the buck to the consumer seems to the mantra of the builders.

Economic times reports
NEW DELHI: Realty slowdown is delaying delivery of homes. Several developers have postponed execution of their housing projects as funds become scarce, demand softens and raw material prices rise. While some others are deliberately delaying projects in order to reduce supply as demand weakens.
Several projects across the country are getting delayed as developers aren’t able to generate enough cash to continue construction work. Projects are delayed by as much as 6 months to over a year. “Funding is largely unavailable. Those developers who can access funds are also shying away from it since it has become very expensive. In addition, income from sales of housing units has declined with the softening of demand ,” says Cushman & Wakefield executive MD Sanjay Verma.

All developers are facing the heat on account of high interest rates, which the country’s central bank has been hiking in order to tame inflation . Mid and small developers are faring worse as banks have almost shut their door on them.

“It is a tough time for real estate firms. A weak demand is affecting cash flow. Moreover, the cost of debt and construction has risen. How can one continue construction with the same pace in this environment,” says a senior executive at Omaxe.

Some developers cite usual reasons such as delayed government sanction and unavailability of men and material for the current unusual delays. “Till the last month, steel was difficult to procure even at a very high rate delaying execution of projects ,” says Gaursons joint MD Manoj Gaur.
Not all delays are forced by just funding or material constraint. Says Sanjay Verma of Cushman & Wakefield, “Some developers are not minding delaying projects as they feel a reduced supply of homes will help them sustain prices in the face of slowing demand.”
In such cases, early buyers in the project are surely going to suffer as they will have to wait for a much longer time for delivery of their dream homes. Verma feels the scenario in real estate is unlikely to improve for at least one year as interest rates are expected to remain high.

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Chennai : OMR plot goes for 10.5 crore an acre

Economic Times reports

CHENNAI: The Bangalore-based Mantri Developers has successfully bid for a 4.9 acre plot of land at Siruseri IT Park on the IT Highway for developing an amenities centre. The price — Rs 10.5 crore per acre for a 75-year lease — is considered a new benchmark in Chennai’s real estate market.

The plot of land, located at the entrance of the IT Park and adjoining the IT Highway, was originally acquired by the State Industries Promotion Corporation of Tamil Nadu Ltd (SIPCOT). It was handed over to the Tamil Nadu Road Development Company (TNRDC) — which develops the IT Highway also known as Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR) or Rajiv Gandhi Salai — on a 99-year lease for developing world-class facilities for the IT and ITES sector as well as the road users.

The TNRDC’s earlier efforts to identify a business partner for the project failed because all were far below the upset price of Rs 10 crore fixed by the company.

When the TNRDC floated a revised bid recently, Mantri offered to pay Rs 10.5 crore per acre and emerged successful. The TNRDC will hand over the land on a 75-year lease to Mantri for setting up a hotel — four star or five star — and an amenities centre with shopping mall and club house measuring roughly 6.5 lakh sq ft. The developer will be at liberty to identify a viable business proposition.

While sources in the TNRDC and Mantri refused to comment, it is learnt that the two firms are working towards the conclusion of the bid process. Mantri will have to make a one-time payment of Rs 51.45 crore for the plot of land. Mantri’s offer is more than double of what many IT companies have paid for acquiring land from SIPCOT in the Sirusseri park.

However, the commercial value of private properties along the IT Highway between Sholinganallur and Sirusseri range from Rs 15 crore to Rs 20 crore per acre. Mantri is also developing a residential project — Mantri Synergy — at Padur on the IT Highway.

The builder is already promoting luxury and business hotels in Bangalore and Hyderabad and IT space in Bangalore and Pune. The group started by Sushil Mantri with a low capital of Rs 10 lakh in 1999 in Bangalore, has so far completed more than a dozen residential projects in Bangalore.

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