State of Denial

Mint has a couple of good articles on the denial of the Indian builders to accept the reality of a slowdown. The Sensex has crashed 50%, midcaps 60%, small caps 70% but India real estate developers think that the word correction applies to everyone but them. Like Marie Antonette said "If you don't have bread, eat cake" the Raheja's are pricing villas for 6crores. God save the ostriches. The articles are below

Mumbai: Bhav gira kya (Has the price fallen)?” the prospective buyer asked.
“Bhav chada hi nahin girne ke liye (It needs to rise before it can fall),” came the stoic response from across the counter from the Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd, or HDIL, representative.

That exchange more or less sums up the current dynamic between discount-seeking buyers and reduction-resistant sellers in India’s real estate market, a chasm that was apparent at Property 2008, the 13th real estate and housing finance exhibition, a four-day event held last fortnight at the Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai.
A dozen signboards outside the site of the expo screamed, “Take the right decision. Buy now”, but buyers seemed indifferent to that message, even though they flocked to the exhibition in droves on Saturday.
Even as analysts caution that the days to come will be critical for developers as their inventory of unsold houses increases, real estate firms put on their bravest faces at the exhibition and said they wouldn’t consider reducing prices.
Under pressure: Real estate development in the country, including housing projects such as this one in Ghaziabad, is heavily dependent on population migration due to rapid urban growth. Harikrishna Katragadda / Mint
Everyone has got it wrong, they insist. “Make up your mind, this is the right time. The economic cycle is maturing and, by January next year, apartment prices will go up,” said Vinod Manwani, marketing head at the Nahar group, which is developing more than 100 acres in the heart of Mumbai, near Powai lake.
Analysts say real estate firms aren’t helping themselves with this attitude.
“The current slowdown in demand for realty, coupled with declining internal accruals and reduced funding options, exposes them (real estate firms) to the downside of this aggressive strategy; there are large amounts of debt already on their balance sheets and, (with) external funds increasingly hard to come by, we foresee delays on their many ongoing and planned real estate projects, thereby leading to the possibility of sale of projects or even enterprises,” said Akash Deep Jyoti, head of corporate and government ratings at Crisil Ltd, a Standard and Poor’s company.
A report in Monday’s The Economic Times said banks and finance companies have begun pushing developers to sell cheap.
To make matters worse, many companies have borrowed from outside the banking system at much higher rates.
The best way out is for them to sell assets and offload completed projects, said Jyoti.
Builders also need to get realistic on pricing, as a significant correction is yet to happen, added Jyoti.

Bangalore: Real estate entrepreneur Vijay Raheja has lined up a raft of projects in Mumbai and Bangalore for the next six months to a year—braving a slump in the property market after splitting the family business with his brother in July—and started with a development targeted at the rich. His company, V Raheja Design Construction launched its first project post the split on Dussehra—the Verena luxury villas spread over five acres in east Bangalore’s Whitefield neighbourhood where each unit has been priced at Rs6 crore. Exclusive: V Raheja Design took over construction of the new JW Marriott hotel at UB City in Bangalore in July. Hemant Mishra / Mint“There are 40 villas, and all will be sold by invitation. Other residential and commercial projects will be launched gradually,” said a senior official at the company who manages the Bangalore operations, but did not want to be identified. Raheja is working on projects including an IT park, Gigaplex, a residential project, Buena Vista, and a commercial property, Raheja Chambers, in the city. In Mumbai, an information technology park is under construction. Raheja and his younger brother, Deepak, split the 56-year-old B Raheja Builders between themselves and founded their own companies, ‘Mint’ reported on 7 July. The properties and projects of B Raheja Builders were divided between the brothers, with V Raheja Design taking over the construction of the new JW Marriott hotel at UB City in Bangalore. “A Rs6 crore villa is overpriced where builders are unable to sell Rs3 crore houses in the same area,” Naresh Dandapat, regional director (south) at property consultancy Knight Frank India, said of the Verena villa project. But the official defended the pricing, saying, “They are exclusive and contemporary, and have been priced accordingly.” Analysts say builders need to get realistic about pricing, sell assets and offload finished projects

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Revisiting the first post of this blog

Rewiding almost 3 years into the past, I found my original post. Most of the observations made then have been vindicated by the turn of events. Three years later, the stock market is up 10% and looks very likely to go below 9k in the following weeks, thereby wiping gains for 3 years. The FII's have taken the Indian investor for a ride down a a tunnel of hell. As everyone reads the bad news, I'm thinking of what could be good prices to pay for apts in the year ahead ? Anything over 3000 is steep by any standards. Black money can chase other black money, however loans are in short supply so they cannot chase other loans. If a black money operator buys an apt paying 1cr, immediately the Income Tax folks will get alerted and will be on his case. The only place where they can hide money is to buy land/plots where there is a substantial portion in black. As state governments keep raising gudiance value, this avenue is closing as well. In Chennai the guidance of OMR road is up 10 times over the past 3 years. Hence speculation here attracts the Income tax bugs. The only avenue black money folks have is to fund builders, however given the state of the loan market, they will be unwilling to do so. The goal of every black money operator is to convert the black to white, but as avenues for the conversion evaporate due to increasing risk, storing black money under the matteress or in hidden cabinets seems to the only way. Any builder who is looking for money is paying 30% interest, this used to be the case in 2003. So the market is dull, people have lost money in the market upto 80% in many cases. How long can 10000 per sq/ft hold ?
and I just got this in the mail and couldn't come at a better time. A drop of 40% from the existing rates, However to take the risk of execution during a time of financial crisis is foolhardy. We will see these prices for ready to occupy apts soon.

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Friday, December 09, 2005
Asset Bubble or not ?
As the Indian economy grew by 8% as stated by the finance minster(12/9/2005), the sensex hit an all time high of 9057 and housing prices have continued to skyrocket in major metro areas.

One of the worrisome aspects of this growth is that low interest rates have helped companies in BIFR(chapter 11 for India) to come back with healthy balance sheets specifically due to debt-refinancing. (18% to 11%). The productivity growth or job growth is not wholly responsible for the growth. Also many of these restructured companies might pay themselves dividends or buy back shares thereby increasing the wealth of the directors, and owners and thus balloning the stock market beyond fundamental basis.

The white collar worker has to deal with the consequences of this semi-illusionary growth in the form of increasing property prices (10-20% year-over-year) and is borrowing heavily thanks to low interest rates.

As property prices push higher, the risk of default of these small apt buyers increases as global interest rates rise, energy prices push higher , inflation increases and the rupee devalues as the external debt mounts rapidly

Most Indians in the market for a apartment now have never experienced a downturn in the economy so they might find themselves highly shafted if they over-leverage themselves on the loans as well as the floating interest rates.

Unfortunately unlike the developed west , India has no reliable source of data available for real estate prices and transactions and most prices are rigged by a cartel of builders. I'm also skeptical of the media in reporting the truth since they too dont have any reliable data to go from and finally real estate agents, the less said about them the better.

This blog attempts to understand area development and price movements and if people contribute uncover hidden unsold inventory. I'll post information about Mumbai/Pune/Bangalore over which I can get anecdotal evidence or as I browse the news papers and talk to real-estate agents and builders. All articles and comments are welcome. I'll be the moderator of the comments so that the spammers dont take over.

This blog is inspired from a similar blog http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/ which is now a reliable source of data for various US housing markets.

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Equity Funds attacked by bears

I was curious to see what the year to date performance could be on mutual funds on 10/15/2008 and here is the snapshot of the query. Not one diversified equity fund has shown any gains over the past 1 year. Attached is the picture which says it all. You can run other queries on the Mutual fund screener tool and find out the top losers over the past year or two but the amount of money lost this year is over 30% so all the gains made over the 3 year horizon are wiped out in half. If someone had put the same amount of money in a fixed deposit, they wouldn't have done too bad. The FII's have scooted with the gains and the brokerages have to be squarely blamed for deceiving the common Indian investor of their life savings.

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Run on FMP's causing panic

This could be India's subprime and credit crisis which will affect the realty industry the most.

Sucheta Dalal & Debashis Basu say that withdrawals from Fixed Maturity Plans can turn into a huge problem

A full blown panic in the real estate and financial services sectors has led to the withdrawal of nearly Rs 30,000 crore from Fixed Maturity Plans of Mutual Funds in the past week alone. These funds are meeting all redemption demands by borrowing money at high rates of 20% to 24%. This may end up destroying parts of their corpus and may lead to losses for retail investors. Retail investors have (as usual) foolishly remained invested in FMPs lured by their pitch which touted them ‘safer than fixed deposits and offering higher returns and lower taxes’, on the assurance of ‘indicative’ returns, although MoneyLIFE magazine (FMPs Lose Shine) had repeatedly pointed out that the risks of FDs and FMPs are so vastly different that comparing them are like comparing oranges and apples. FMPs may end up being like the unregulated Overseas Corporate Bodies of the previous market decline. Someone needs to urgently look at what is going on inside them. Unfortunately, SEBI does not even gather data about the FMPs issued by mutual funds or the quality of securities in them.

The other problem today is super-liquid schemes that invest in the call money market. There was no regulatory oversight on these schemes and they have been allowed not to mark their investment to market and could claim to hold them to maturity even when it was a one-year paper. This has created a very dangerous situation today.

Finance and realty companies are the weakest link in the chain. Many FMPs have subscribed to short term AAA rated paper of finance and realty companies. The credit rating of these papers now looks doubtful. One finance company (belonging to the bluest of the blue chip business house whose previous finance arm was deeply involved in the 2001 scam), has also renewed its paper at an exorbitant rate of 32%.

The smarter, corporate investors are taking no chances and pulling out funds and exacerbating the salutation leading to panic. No regulator has bothered to collect data on the investment pattern of FMPs and liquid schemes and keep tabs on it. As result, the systemic risk posed by the redemption runs on these schemes and the shaky underlying debt securities in their portfolio is suddenly upon us and nobody knows whether the RBI should look into it or SEBI or both. Mutual funds that are borrowing to meet redemption are refusing to utilise their bank credit for this emergency, because they feel that it will only put information in the public domain and cause a run on the fund.

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Bldrs tread cautiously on realty street

Bldrs tread cautiously on realty street
Nauzer Bharucha | TNN

Mumbai: Some of the tastefully done-up stalls at the property exhibition at Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) are as large as one-bedroom apartments. Smart marketing girls move around with glazed brochures, pitching upcoming residential projects to prospective home buyers.
In the adjoining seminar hall, there is much bonhomie among the assembled builders, gorging on a lavish vegetarian spread. To many, it may seem to be business as usual for Mumbai’s property czars. But behind the broad smiles is a growing concern about the stormy days ahead.
The construction industry is suddenly down in the dumps and builders are still unwilling to say when they will relent and reduce prices. But across the city, massive cranes, which were once swinging at frenzied pace, have slowed down considerably.
“Developers have drastically cut down work on their under-construction projects. For instance, if a builder was laying one slab a month, the pace has slowed down to one slab in three months. When flats are no longer selling as briskly as they used to, there is little point in speeding up construction work,’’ a leading builder confessed privately to this newspaper recently.
Some of them are also believed to have postponed launching new projects. Banks and financial institutions have also turned on the screws. A couple of years ago, they stopped lending money to builders for land acquisition. Now, even loans for construction has virtually come to a halt since the past three months, industry sources said. “Banks have become extremely choosy about lending money to builders,’’ they said.
In the residential segment, prices in some of the upscale projects coming up in Malad and Goregaon are in the range of Rs 9,000 to Rs 10,500 a sq ft. In Juhu, the rate is anywhere between Rs 15,000 a sq ft to Rs 21,000 a sq ft in upcoming projects. In south Mumbai, there is an eyeball to eyeball confrontation between buyers and sellers of premium apartments. “The seller is still adamant and refuses to lower the price, while the buyer is still not falling for it. In the past six months, the same flats which were put up for sale are still circulating in the market,’’ said a CEO of a real estate company, not wishing to be identified.
At Pedder Road, a builder who has just finished an upscale apartment block, is finding no takers. “He has been demanding a whopping Rs 80 crore for each apartment, which is spread over 8,000 sq ft super built up area. Not a single unit has been sold at this price,’’ said market sources.
“Confronted by a bleak scenario, builders are twiddling their thumbs and waiting for the real estate market to revive,’’ said an insider. A handful of developers who are sitting on large chunks of land since many years, and who have little exposure to banks, are in a comfortable position at present. The rest are finding the going tough while some who had purchased land at unrealistically high rates, are finding the noose tightening.
According to the market grapevine, the brother of a prominent developer from the eastern suburbs, who has branched out on his own now, is stuck after a US-based bank allegedly stopped funding his projects in Hyderabad and Chennai. Another developer with residential projects in Goregaon, Virar and Thane finds himself pushed into a corner after taking a Rs 100 crore loan from a Kutchi industrialist at hefty interest rate of over 40%.
One builder, who shook the property market last year after he paid a phenomenallyhigh price for a plot in BKC, is also believed to be now on the edge. “His investors are breathing down his neck and even the nationalised bank which funded him, now wants its money back. His desperation is now evident because he has started offering brokers a 4% brokerage for getting clients,’’ said sources.
In the commercial segment, the lease rental prices in BKC has come down from an average of Rs 450 a sq ft to Rs 325-Rs 350 a sq ft over the past three months, it is learnt. “Developers setting up IT parks are also getting worried as they are not getting the price they were expecting,’’ said a broker.
According to housing experts, about $4 billion has been pumped into the Indian real estate market by FIIs and venture capital funds. Another $12 to $14 billion was to flow in within the next 18 months. This will not come any more.

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Pune : Kondwa gets a bad name

With prices over 4000 per sq/ft here on the outskirts of Pune, Kondwa seems to be the new terror hub

Kondhwa: Pune's emerging terror nest
8 Oct 2008, 0344 hrs IST,TNN

PUNE: The arrests of four suspected Indian Mujahideen (IM) members from the Kondhwa area of Pune and the revelation that they had used a plush fla
t at Ashoka Mews to fine-tune their plans to send terror emails and hack into WiFi networks has left local residents shocked.

"This is unfortunate. We are feeling insecure. This is giving a bad name to the entire Kondhwa area," said B Nair, a senior citizen who stays in a building near Ashoka Mews, a complex which houses 12 buildings and 28 row houses.

Another resident, Shrilekha Menon, said that she had purchased a flat in Kondhwa three years ago as the area was peaceful then. "But now we are feeling uncomfortable and may shift," she said.

Her fears are not unwarranted. This is the second time in the last couple of months that the police have arrested suspects from Kondhwa for their alleged terror links. On August 16, one of the three youths picked up by the Anti-Terrorism Squad was from Kondhwa. Police have questioned several others in the area.

In August, Pune police commissioner Satyapal Singh had said that the number of suspected Simi activists in the city had increased from 47 to 300. Though Singh had not revealed the pockets and areas from where these activists were thought to operate, police sources said that a majority of them were located in Kondhwa.

"We are concerned by this grouping of Simi activists in one locality. Earlier, they were scattered at Kasewadi, Bhavani Peth and Kondhwa. Now a majority of them have shifted their base to Kondhwa," said a senior police officer.

The officer said that there could be several reasons, including cheaper rentals and, until recently, weaker surveillance.

Speaking to TOI on Monday, deputy commissioner of police (DCP) Jalindar Supekar (zone IV) said that two special teams comprising 10 policemen each from the Kondhwa and Hadapsar police stations have been formed to look for suspected Simi activists taking shelter in places like Kondhwa.

The teams, formed three days ago, are headed by senior police inspector R B Gaikar, who is in charge of the Kondhwa police station. The activities of the teams, which started functioning from Sunday evening, will be supervised by Supekar and assistant commissioner of police (ACP) Ramesh Biwal (Wanowrie division).

According to Supekar, the team has been given a special task of identifying suspected Simi activists, keeping a tab on their movements and collecting intelligence.

Biwal confirmed that the Mumbai crime branch and Bangalore police had earlier visited Kondhwa for questioning suspected SIMI activists, but he claimed that the outcome of the interrogation was not known because no information was shared with the city police.

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Shah Rukh glamor doomed in the Gulf

Shah Rukh Khan or SRK needs to start reading this blog :). Sabbal Seshu and Ashish will get him black money rich clients for his high end gulf properties. Alas Mr SRK you might be a good businessman with Knight Riders and IPL, however this one is destined to end up 'deserted'.

Bollywood Star Hopes Glamour Will Rub Off on Gulf Properties

By Ayesha Daya
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shah Rukh Khan, the star of Bollywood hits such as ``Om Shanti Om'' and ``Chak De India,'' hopes his glamour will rub off on the real-estate fortunes of a little-known Gulf emirate.

Khan will help Ras Al Khaimah, a rocky outcrop of 168 square kilometers (65 square miles) and 250,000 people, to sell an 8 billion-dirham ($2.2 billion) beachfront development that will include an underwater disco and lounge. He presented the project, called Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard, in Dubai on Oct 5.

``I'm a believer in a place where things grow fast,'' Khan, who has visited Ras Al Khaimah only once, said in an interview after the briefing. Khan, 42, has endorsed products ranging from PepsiCo Inc. soft drinks to Hyundai Motor Co. cars.

Ras Al Khaimah, the most northerly of the seven sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates, aims to emulate Dubai, whose booming property market has attracted endorsements from celebrities including Brad Pitt and Boris Becker. The developer, TSA Group, is trying to lure foreign investors including Khan's fans from the Indian diaspora.

As oil and gas reserves dwindle, the emirate hopes tourism will generate independent sources of income and supplement contributions from hydrocarbon-rich Abu Dhabi that provide basic infrastructure, power and public services.

The Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard will be built on the man-made Dana Island that is being developed by the government's real estate unit Rakeen. The Boulevard will comprise townhouses and ten towers spread across an area of 600,000 square feet and is due to be completed in 2012.

Design Ideas

Khan has offered design ideas for the project, such as a glass gate at the entrance and big screens on the beach where people can watch movies, besides the underwater attractions.

``For me, this is the first step to have the freedom to express myself in stone,'' said Khan, who isn't planning any other developments. The Mumbai-based actor will start filming ``My Name is Khan'' on Dec. 15.

Khan said the project won't be hampered by a slump in the local real estate market brought on by the global financial crisis and the prospect of a worldwide recession. ``This is not the first time I'm experiencing recessions,'' the actor said, adding that the project won't be ready for another five years.

In Dubai, Brad Pitt is helping to design an 800-room hotel and resort with Zabeel Properties, while towers have been named after former Wimbledon tennis champion Boris Becker and ex-Formula One driver Michael Schumacher.

Dubai's other projects include a 1-kilometer-tall tower and surrounding developments that will cost about $40 billion, a 300- island project in the shape of continents called The World, and the world's biggest mall.

Dubai Real Estate

Home prices in Dubai, the second-biggest of the country's emirates after Abu Dhabi, are likely to remain little-changed until 2010 after five years of gains, Colliers CRE Plc said in a report Oct. 5. Emaar Properties PJSC, the Middle East's biggest publicly traded real-estate company, lost the most since 2000 on Oct. 5 on concern that the U.S. bank bailout won't prevent the global credit crisis from reaching Dubai.

``There is very little to go on with regards to the fundamentals behind the Ras Al Khaimah market,'' said Robert McKinnon, managing director of equity research at Al Mal Capital PSC. ``But I do expect it would correct along with the rest of the U.A.E.'' if this happens.

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