Baseline scenario outlook on India

I just came across this site which seem to discuss all the economic situation of today and the Obama stimulus plan. What Obama does affects the world and India is no exception. Here is an excerpt from their outlook on India from a macro-economic perspective. The full link is to article is here. Simon Johnson's interview with Bill Moyers on the stimulus package and bank oligarchy in the US. With the 30:1 leverage we've seen how Lehman and Bear Stearns have helped dig a hole deeper then anyone could imagine.

India

There are striking similarities between the current policy debate in India and in the Eurozone. In both places, there is little or no concern that inflation will rebound any time soon. At least for people based in Delhi, there is as a result confidence that aggressive monetary policy can cushion the blows coming from the global economy. As in the Eurozone, all eyes are on monetary policy because of fears that fiscal policy cannot do much more than it is already doing, given that government debt levels are already on the high side.

The discordant note comes from the business community. They feel that Delhi does not fully understand that the real economy is already in bad shape. Sectors such as real estate and autos are hurting badly. Small businesses, in particular, are bearing the brunt of the blow. The banking picture seems more murky, but is surely not good. And of course the Satyam accounting scandal could not come at a worse time.

Overall, official growth forecasts need to be marked down for India, although the monsoon was good and the agricultural sector is not highly leveraged. India will likely cut interest rates further quite soon (and has space for additional cuts), but we should not expect much more from the fiscal side.