After basic fundamentals are taken into account, most markets (housing, stock,loans ) are driven by psychology. People buy things based on what others are buying. The media plays its role in shaping the opinion and perception about goods and services and common sense will tell you how people buy and sell based on news articles in the media. Many times people are stricken by fear and sell too early - For this see the Cramer video on how market makers plant stories and move stocks.
My theory is that the bad news trend is down. People yawn when yesterday's unemployment figures in the US were announced and the stock market moved higher, inspite of record unemployment.
What my little brain can infer is that the government is going to throw the kitchen sink at the problem and several articles have pointed to inflation to rise in the coming months. The US I-Bonds limit has been lowered to 5,000$ per person from 30000$. The government does not want to pay the CPI inflation for the bond since it thinks that is the what is on the horizon. Some people are forecasting US inflation at 5% in the coming years.
In India I see the government pumping money in by lowering rates and drawing out all the fence sitters to buy in the property market. However they will make loans very hard to get so the black component of the market will rise. I still don't see how we can justify 60L apts in remote areas or 1 cr apts in developed areas if only funded by loans.
There are other issues like timely delivery of apts, poor construction, cheating which are bigger issues in the apt buying process. Those have to be analyzed more closely and the only thing the buyer can do is to beware and go for ready possession clear titles properties.
I still see a big demand in people wanting housing, the only thing as we all know is the price is too high even after the 25% drops in most mid-segment housing prices.
0 comments:
Post a Comment