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Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Mint asks a very pertinent question. Have Mumbai prices risen to fast ?

Posted on 21:43 by Unknown
Far flung suburbs are quoting at 10,000 per sq ft. I'm not taking about Andheri but Kandivili and Borivili. 95% of Mumbaikars cannot afford these prices. What is the point of living in such a city ? Ofcourse we won't see such questions asked in the Toilet paper of India which is keep spreading all bogus news about real estate developments which have no consequence on the Mumbaikar. The city has gone to the dogs but nobody is willing to bell the cat. All these meaningless statistical analysis by the RBI economists ignores the biggest factor of black money in Mumbai real estate. Builders quote 50% in black money. The RBI is like the Roman emperor Nero who played the fiddle when Rome burned. All these bogus facts about the island city are meaningless when we have sprawls all the way upto Panvel and Virar. I believe the builders are keeping apartment prices high to keep their stock prices high. They can then sell the stock to gullible investors by planting stories in the news media. Also they can sell their apts to gullible NRIs just like what happened in Dubai.

The stock response to a question on housing prices in Mumbai is that they have become unaffordable. The general feeling is that they have risen too far, too fast. Fingers are pointed to the vast number of unsold apartments and everybody wonders how builders can afford to keep these flats vacant for months. But have real estate prices in Mumbai really gone up so dramatically? Mint reports


The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) report on macroeconomic and monetary developments has, in its chapter on financial markets, a chart on the house price index in Mumbai. The chart gives the index weighted by the value of transactions and the number of transactions. It shows that the Mumbai house price index reached a peak of around 230 or so in the second quarter of 2008 before starting to plunge. The index then fell to a low of slightly above 150 in the fourth quarter of 2008 before starting to climb again. By the second quarter of 2009, it had exceeded its pre-crisis highs and by the fourth quarter of 2009, it had gone a bit higher than 250. The chart has data from the second quarter of 2003, when the value of the index was 100. Putting it another way, if RBI’s index for Mumbai is right, then it means property prices in the city have, on average, gone up by a bit more than 2.5 times between 2003 and the end of 2009. But the gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at current prices has, between 2003-04 and 2009-10, gone up 2.3 times. And if India’s GDP has gone up by 2.3 times over the period, GDP of Mumbai city must have increased by a far larger factor. Add to that Mumbai’s island location, which makes expansion difficult and the rise in real estate prices does not seem too steep.
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